2021
DOI: 10.1101/2021.03.19.21253960
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Within-country age-based prioritisation, global allocation, and public health impact of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: a mathematical modelling analysis

Abstract: The worldwide endeavour to develop safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines has been extraordinary, and vaccination is now underway in many countries. However, the doses available in 2021 are likely to be limited. We extended a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission across different country settings to evaluate the public health impact of potential vaccines using WHO-developed target product profiles. We identified optimal vaccine allocation strategies within- and between-countries to maximise averted death… Show more

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Cited by 22 publications
(37 citation statements)
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“…The UK government Vaccine Task Force decided to prioritize vaccination to senior citizens (over 50 years old), to those with comorbidities, and to the HCWs and front-line social workers of the COVID-19 response [ 7 ]. Moreover, the reduction of mortality was expected to be the highest when vaccination started at the older ages and expanded to younger ages, especially in developed countries [ 8 ].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The UK government Vaccine Task Force decided to prioritize vaccination to senior citizens (over 50 years old), to those with comorbidities, and to the HCWs and front-line social workers of the COVID-19 response [ 7 ]. Moreover, the reduction of mortality was expected to be the highest when vaccination started at the older ages and expanded to younger ages, especially in developed countries [ 8 ].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Furthermore, the global economic loss due to COVID-19 in 2020 was estimated at US $9trillion [ 2 ]. Accordingly, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the WHO determined that physical (social) distancing alone was insufficient to prevent and eliminate COVID-19 and stressed the need for vaccination while simultaneously initiating the development of COVID-19 vaccines [ 3 , 4 ].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For high vaccine efficacy, and when sufficiently many are vaccinated, it is optimal to vaccinate the younger age groups which account for the most transmissions. Similarly, Hogan et al [30] consider optimal age-targeted vaccination where the entire age group is assumed to be vaccinated at a constant rate over the course of one month. Acuna-Zegarra et al [31] use optimal control to conclude that intense vaccination for a limited time period is optimal.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%