Without Roots: The Political Consequences of Collective Economic Shocks

Abstract

Plant disease epidemics are becoming more prevalent due to climate change, monoculture, and increased global connectivity, and inflict severe economic and social hardship on affected communities. Yet, little is known about their political consequences. We exploit the sudden and plausibly exogenous outbreak of the plant pathogen Xylella fastidiosa, which exterminated centuries-old olive groves in the Italian region of Puglia starting in 2013, to examine the political consequences of plant disease epidemics. We combine quantitative difference-in-differences analysis of municipal-level data with qualitative fieldwork in affected municipalities using a novel case selection procedure. We find a 2.2-percentage-point excess vote share for far-right parties, document the outbreak's economic and socio-cultural consequences, and outline a mechanism rooted in a community narrative of abandonment by the state and ruling elites. Together, our findings reveal an important driver of support for the far right.