World Oil And Gas Resources: Future Production Realities

Masters, Chris

doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.15.1.23

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 4 publications

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“…The last quoted sentence was truly astonishing, as it implied the necessity of doing something utterly impossible: converting the world's primary energy supply to a different source in a matter of months! More recently, Masters et al (1990) predicted the peak of non-OPEC oil production at just short of 40 million barrels per day sometime between 1987 and 1995 -while 1997 output was about 42 mb/d. Failed regional or field forecasts are equally easy to find.…”

Section: Questioning the Early End Of The Oil Eramentioning

confidence: 99%

Future of Oil: Trends and Surprises

Smil

1998

OPEC Review

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Recent forecasts of an early decline in global oil extraction are just the latest additions to a long list of failed predictions. The timing of this event depends not only on the unknown quantity of ultimately recoverable crude oil resources, but also on the rates of demand growth, which are determined by a complex interplay of energy substitutions, technical advances, government policies and environmental considerations. Consequently, all past efforts to pinpoint the peak years of global oil output and its subsequent decline have been unsuccessful. And, even if the most pessimistic forecasts of an early end to the oil era were correct, we should not see the demise of today's cheap oil as a cause of major economic and political difficulties. Historical perspectives show that transitions to new energy sources have been a critical factor in human evolution, driving our inventiveness and shaping our complex societies.December 1998

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Section: Questioning the Early End Of The Oil Eramentioning

confidence: 99%

Future of Oil: Trends and Surprises

Smil

1998

OPEC Review

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Global warming and clean electricity

Bodansky

1991

Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion

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The possibility of global climate change due to the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gaSeS poses dangers Of a magnitude Which is imprecisely known but may be very large.The problem can be ameliorated by reducing fossil fuel consumption through conservation and expanded use of nuclear and solar power. In particular, major reductions can be achieved if fossil fuels are replaced in electricity generation and if electricity assumes a larger role in the overall energy economy. KEYWORDSGlobal warming. carbon dioxide, electricity use, nuclear power ENERGY PROBLEMS: OIL AND CARBON DIOXIDE 14x9 * Recommendations for more study. In this view, greenhouse effects are not well enough established to justify action at this time. Instead, there should be intensified scientific investigation.. Recommendations to begin planning for adaptation. with the greenhouse effect in prospect, it is argued that w e should now begin to take adaptive measures---for example, avoiding construction in low-lying coastal areas.Global warming and clean electricity 1493 * Recomendations for prevention, or more modestly, mitigation or abatement. For example, reduction in the use Of fossil fuel3 would reduce the rate of buildup Of greenhouse gases.

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The cost of meeting the Kyoto Protocol

Persson

Azar²

2003

Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal

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Estimates the cost of meeting the Kyoto Protocol with an energy-economic optimization model. Special focus is on the Russian and Ukrainian and the potential implications of the US decision to withdraw from the Protocol. Finds that the carbon permit price can be expected to drop substantially due to US withdrawal. In fact, the aggregated emission target could be met in the absence of US participation. However, Russia and the Ukraine could be the dominant sellers of emission permits and they could increase the permit price. Clearly no climate benefits would result from trading emission permits that do not correspond to real reductions in CO 2 emissions. EU countries, Japan and Canada are not likely to be supportive of paying billions of dollars that do not result in emission reductions. One way of dealing with the Russian and Ukrainian surplus is to negotiate more stringent targets for subsequent commitment periods early, and to allow banking. The model suggests that, under these conditions, early action and banking do take place.

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World Oil And Gas Resources: Future Production Realities

Cited by 3 publications

References 4 publications

Future of Oil: Trends and Surprises

Future of Oil: Trends and Surprises

Global warming and clean electricity

The cost of meeting the Kyoto Protocol

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