World Outlook for Iron Source Demand-Comparison with Energy Outlook-

Analysis of Global Demand for Iron Source by Estimation of In-use Steel Stock

“…Although it is difficult to show cause by engineering means, the International Energy Agency put forward several reasons such as improvement of efficiency in use of energy, climate warning and the oil shocks. 17,18) The correlation between the steel stock in use and the GDP is analogous to the "Acceleration Principle"…”

Analysis of Global Demand for Iron Source by Utility of Stock Hypothesis

“…As already reported, 1) we showed the importance of mass effect by proposing the "equation of mass effect" (tentative name) and pointed out remaining issues concerning world outlook for iron source as follows. Priority issues are to upgrade a demand model rather than considering supply constraint and therefore to consider a one-region world model by focusing on the utility of steel which comes from stocks rather than flows.…”

“…Furthermore, these existing studies may not be enough in points such as testing the validity with real data and continuous improvement of models. 1) With regard to energy outlook, as already reported, 1) several international organizations and governments share the view that the growth rate of global energy demand will be around 2 % (1.9 -2.3 %) until 2020. The International Energy Agency has reviewed its previous forecasts and errors between the assumed values and the actual values have been within 2.2 % since 1993.…”

“…2 is due to the demand expansion of iron source in initial economic growth stage of developing countries such as China. In this study, however, we formulated a new rational hypothesis, because there are countries where the Intensity of Use hypothesis is not applied well, function shapes of the hypothesis vary from country to country, 1) and a one-region world model of energy or paper can explain the relationship between the demand and the economic growth according to other studies. 8,9) In order to formulate a rational hypothesis, we supposed that economic growth is a driver to increase utility, which means that utility is a function of GDP.…”

“…1). [1][2][3][4][5][6] Some researchers, for example Vurren et al 5) and Neelis et al, 2) explain an inverse-U shape of the IU curve by using three arguments.…”