World Trade, 1800-1938: A New Synthesis

Abstract

This paper outlines the development of world trade from 1800 to 1938. It relies on a newly compiled database, which, unlike previous works (e.g. Lewis 1981), reports series of imports and exports at current and constant prices and at current and constant (1913) borders for almost all existing polities. In the first sections, we outline the estimation methodology and assess the reliability of the series (now available athttp://www.uc3m.es/tradehist_db). World trade grew very fast throughout the «long» 19thcentury, but growth rates were higher before 1870. We measure the effects of war and the Great Depression on total trade and trade by continent and polity. Within this general upward trend, the performance of polities differed by geographical location, level of development, political status and factor endowment. Finally, we estimate trends in the share of primary products, which declined until World War One, with an acceleration in the second half of the 19thcentury.

When Britain Turned Inward: The Impact of Interwar British Protection

“…It rose during the war but then resumed its decline, standing at 17 percent in 1924 and 15 percent in 1928. The United Kingdom's share of world exports was lower: 13 percent in 1924 and 11 percent in 1928 (Federico and Tena-Junguito 2016). McCloskey (1980, p. 318) writes that "In the 1930s Britain herself finally did abandon free trade, but by then, alas, the dominant position that would have enabled her over the preceding century to exploit the rest of the world was gone"; Harley (2004, p. 202) that "Paradoxically, protection began to recover its political appeal only at the end of the century, when potential monopoly was gone forever."…”

The World Periphery in Global Agricultural and Food Trade, 1900–2000

“…Up to the beginning of the twentieth twentieth century, we have no data on agricultural trade that would allow us to analyze its evolution on a global scale. However, the new data for total trade provided by Federico and Tena (2016) show that, until 1890, there were improvements in the shares of trade for Oceania, Africa, and Latin America. Between 1850 and 1914, exports from the Latin American countries increased at an impressive annual rate of 3.5% (Bértola and Williamson, 2006: 28).…”

“…Between 1850 and 1914, exports from the Latin American countries increased at an impressive annual rate of 3.5% (Bértola and Williamson, 2006: 28). Since 1890, the growth of exports from the periphery was substantial and all non-European regions, except Oceania, gained substantial weight in world trade (Federico and Tena , 2016). , 1910-1939) and FAO (1947FAO ( -2000 and FAOSTAT (2009).…”

Return of the Tariffs: The Interwar Trade Collapse Revisited

“…Statistics in this paragraph are computed from table D.14 inFederico and Tena Junguito (2016), which shows world exports in constant 1913 USD.3 Another study that quantitatively investigates the trade collapse isMadsen (2001), who argues that approximately 41% of the world trade collapse over the period 1929 to 1932 can be attributed to tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, and the rest is due to declining incomes. However,Madsen (2001) only deals with the immediate depression period and does not consider transport costs or the collapse of the payment system as possible causes.…”