World-wide Projections for Hip Fracture

Gullberg, Bo; Johnell, Olof; Kanis, John А.

doi:10.1007/pl00004148

Cited by 1,904 publications

(1,168 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…However, if a 1% secular increase in age-specific hip fracture rates for many regions of the world is additionally considered, a further 42% increase in frequency in hip fractures in 2025, and an 82% increase in 2050, are expected compared to the estimates based on demographic changes alone. (7) Furthermore, the projected number of hip fractures in 2050 will be five times higher when the 3%/year increase in age-adjusted hip fracture rates occurring outside North America and Northern Europe are considered.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Secular Trends in Hip Fractures Worldwide: Opposing Trends East Versus West

Ballane

Cauley

Luckey

et al. 2014

Journal of Bone and Mineral Research

167

118

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Despite wide variations in hip rates fractures worldwide, reasons for such differences are not clear. Furthermore, secular trends in the age-specific hip fracture rates are changing the world map of this devastating disease, with the highest rise projected to occur in developing countries. The aim of our investigation is to systematically characterize secular trends in hip fractures worldwide, examine new data for various ethnic groups in the United States, evidence for divergent temporal patterns, and investigate potential contributing factors for the observed change in their epidemiology. All studies retrieved through a complex Medline Ovid search between 1966 and 2013 were examined. For each selected study, we calculated the percent annual change in age-standardized hip fracture rates de-novo. Although occurring at different time points, trend breaks in hip fracture incidence occurred in most Western countries and Oceania. After a steep rise in age-adjusted rates in these regions, a decrease became evident sometimes between the mid-seventies and nineties, depending on the country. Conversely, the data is scarce in Asia and South America, with evidence for a continuous rise in hip fracture rates, with the exception of Hong-Kong and Taiwan that seem to follow Western trends. The etiologies of these secular patterns in both the developed and the developing countries have not been fully elucidated, but the impact of urbanization is at least one plausible explanation. Data presented here show close parallels between rising rates of urbanization and hip fractures across disparate geographic locations and cultures. Once the proportion of the urban population stabilized, hip fracture rates also stabilize or begin to decrease perhaps due to the influence of other factors such as birth cohort effects, changes in bone mineral density and BMI, osteoporosis medication use and/or lifestyle interventions such as smoking cessation, improvement in nutritional status and fall prevention.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Secular Trends in Hip Fractures Worldwide: Opposing Trends East Versus West

Ballane

Cauley

Luckey

et al. 2014

Journal of Bone and Mineral Research

167

118

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The incidence of hip fracture has increased worldwide along with the increase in the elderly population. (2)(3)(4) Previous studies have shown that ORIGINAL ARTICLE J JBMR the lifetime risk of hip fracture is 17.5% for women and 6% for men. (5) In the vast majority of cases, a hip fracture is a fragility fracture arising from a fall or minor trauma in individuals with weakened osteoporotic bones, particularly in elderly individuals who are more likely to fall because of poorer balance, medication side effects, and difficulty in maneuvering around environment hazards.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hip fracture and risk of acute myocardial infarction: A nationwide study

Chiang

Liu

Chen

et al. 2012

Journal of Bone and Mineral Research

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Osteoporotic fractures are associated with increased mortality risk. However, little data are available on the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) after hip fracture. Therefore, we investigated whether hip fracture increased the risk of AMI in a large, nationwide cohort study. We obtained data from 8758 patients diagnosed with hip fracture from 2000 to 2009 and from 4 matched controls for each patient from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database (LHID 2000), Taiwan. Controls were matched for age, sex, comorbid disorders, and enrollment date. All subjects were followed up from the date of enrollment until AMI, death, or the end of data collection (2009). Cox's regression model adjusted for age, sex, comorbid disorders, and medication was used to assess independent factors determining the risk of development of AMI. As expected, despite the matching, the hip fracture patients had more risk factors for AMI at baseline. A total of 8758 subjects with hip fractures and 35,032 controls were identified. Among these patients, 1183 (257 hip fracture patients and 926 controls) developed AMI during the median 3.2-year (interquartile range 1.4 to 5.8 years) follow-up period. Patients with hip fractures had a higher incidence of AMI occurrence when compared with controls (8.7/1000 person-years versus 6.82/1000 person-years). Multivariate analysis adjusted for baseline covariates indicated that hip fracture was associated with a greater risk for AMI development (hazard ratio [HR] ¼ 1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-1.48; p < 0.001). We conclude that hip fracture is independently associated with a higher risk of subsequent AMI. ß

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“…The increasing numbers of fragility fractures [3] have forced the implementation of new prevention strategies. One advocated strategy to reduce the incidence of fractures is to identify individuals with osteoporosis for prophylactic treatment [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Low calcaneal bone mineral density and the risk of distal forearm fracture in women and men: A population-based case-control study

Atroshi

Ahlander

Billsten

et al. 2009

Bone

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"Low calcaneal bone mineral density and the risk of distal forearm fracture in women and men: A population-based case-control study." and T-scores. Osteoporosis was defined as T-score ≤-2.5 SD. Of the fracture cohort, 254women aged 40-80 years and 27 men aged 60-80 years were compared with population-based control cohorts comprising 171 women in the age groups 50, 60, 70 and 80 years and 75 men in the age groups 60, 70, and 80 years. Results:In the fracture population no woman below 40 years or man below 60 years of age had osteoporosis. In women aged 40-80 years the prevalence of osteoporosis in the distal forearm fracture cohort was 34% and in the population-based controls was 25%; the ageadjusted prevalence ratio (PR) was 1.32 (95% CI 1.00-1.76). In the subgroup of women 60-80 years the age-adjusted prevalence ratio of osteoporosis was 1.28 (95% CI 0.95-1.71). In men Conclusions:The age-adjusted prevalence of osteoporosis based on calcaneal BMD is higher in individuals with distal forearm fracture than in population-based controls. BMD impairment is associated with increased odds ratio for forearm fracture in both women and men but the differences between cases and controls are more pronounced in men than in women, which may have implications in fracture prevention.3

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World-wide Projections for Hip Fracture

Cited by 1,904 publications

References 45 publications

Secular Trends in Hip Fractures Worldwide: Opposing Trends East Versus West

Secular Trends in Hip Fractures Worldwide: Opposing Trends East Versus West

Hip fracture and risk of acute myocardial infarction: A nationwide study

Low calcaneal bone mineral density and the risk of distal forearm fracture in women and men: A population-based case-control study

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