Would Hydrologic Climate Changes in Sierra Nevada Streams Influence Trout Persistence?

Jager, Henriëtte I.; Winkle, W. Van; Holcomb, B.D.

doi:10.1577/1548-8659(1999)128<0222:whccis>2.0.co;2

Cited by 54 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Gila trout habitat is located at a lower latitude than many other trout species so Gila trout may be better acclimated to slightly warmer temperatures, as shown by laboratory studies on races of cutthroat trout that inhabit wide geographic regions (Wagner et al 2001). Our results are qualitatively similar to other predictions that global warming will reduce suitable habitat for cold water species (Keleher and Rahel 1996;Jager et al 1999;Mohseni et al 2003).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Then, as that envelope shifts as climate changes, the species distribution is shifted to match the new envelope (Scott and Poynter 1991;Davis et al 1998). Previous studies (Keleher and Rahel 1996;Rahel and Nibbenlink 1999;Jager et al 1999;Cooney et al 2005;Goosef et al 2005;Preston 2006) have used the climate envelope approach to predict changes in distributions of Salmonids and other cold-water fish to warming scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting future threats to the long-term survival of Gila trout using a high-resolution simulation of climate change

2008

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Regional climates are a major factor in determining the distribution of many species. Anthropogenic inputs of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere have been predicted to cause rapid climatic changes in the next 50-100 years. Species such as the Gila trout (Oncorhynchus gilae) that have small ranges, limited dispersal capabilities, and narrow physiological tolerances will become increasingly susceptible to extinction as their climate envelope changes. This study uses a regional climate change simulation (Leung et al., Clim Change 62:75-113, 2004) to determine changes in the climate envelope for Gila trout, which is sensitive to maximum temperature, associated with a plausible scenario for greenhouse gas increases. These regional climate changes are downscaled to derive surface temperature lapse rates using regression models. This procedure indicates that suitable, warm season habitat for Gila trout will be reduced by 70% by decreasing the size of their climate envelope. Warmer temperatures coupled with a decrease in summer precipitation would also tend to increase the intensity and frequency of forest fires that are a major threat to their survival. The climate envelope approach utilized here could be used to assess climate change threats to other rare species with limited ranges and dispersal capabilities.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting future threats to the long-term survival of Gila trout using a high-resolution simulation of climate change

2008

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“…The positive response of rainbow trout likely reflects preadaptation to this flow regime, which is characteristic of much of the species' native range (14). Other researchers have recognized that climate-driven shifts in flow regime will play a role in changes to stream biota and aquatic ecosystems (9,26), and some have modeled climate-related flow effects on species at the stream scale (27). However, until now this has not been extended to broad scales due to a lack of quantitative estimates of hydrologic metrics under future conditions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

Wenger

Isaak

Luce

et al. 2011

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

519

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Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km 2 ), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species' physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.global change | hydrology | invasive species | niche model | distribution modeling N early all broad-scale analyses of climate effects on freshwater species have focused on temperature shifts, to the exclusion of other climate-driven drivers. Although temperature is a critical determinant of metabolic and physical processes (1), important ecosystem effects on streams and rivers may also be mediated by flow regime and biotic interactions. Flow regime has been described as a "master variable" (2) that controls or influences many aspects of the physical aquatic environment, as well as the timing of reproduction and migration of many organisms (3). Biotic interactions are increasingly recognized as important components of climate-species relationships (4, 5), but are rarely included in projections of species distributions under future climates, with some notable exceptions (6). Competitive interactions in particular are not commonly modeled (but see ref. 7), despite interest in invasive-native species interaction under climate change (8). It is likely that all three factors-temperature, flow regime, and biotic interactions-will play important roles in future aquatic species distributional shifts (8-11).Trout serve as excellent model organisms for examining how these mechanisms could alter population dynamics and species distributio...

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“…12 Extent of Quaternary basalts in the Northwestern United States (Schruben et al 1998) depends upon one's point of view. For individual headwater streams in the Western Cascades, the large percentage reduction in what are already low flow volumes may have significant ecological consequences through altering stream temperatures, pool volumes, and other habitat features (Sinokrot et al 1995;Jager et al 1999). Because snow is the primary storage term for Western Cascade systems, loss of winter snowpack will likely result in permanent streams becoming more intermittent and ephemeral, resulting in an overall contraction of the last summer drainage network.…”

Section: Warming Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deep groundwater mediates streamflow response to climate warming in the Oregon Cascades

et al. 2007

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Recent studies predict that projected climate change will lead to significant reductions in summer streamflow in the mountainous regions of the Western US. Hydrologic modeling directed at quantifying these potential changes has focused on the magnitude and timing of spring snowmelt as the key control on the spatial-temporal pattern of summer streamflow. We illustrate how spatial differences in groundwater dynamics can also play a significant role in determining streamflow responses to warming. We examine two contrasting watersheds, one located in the Western Cascades and the other in the High Cascades mountains of Oregon. We use both empirical analysis of streamflow data and physically based, spatially distributed modeling to disentangle the relative importance of multiple and interacting controls. In particular, we explore the extent to which differences in snow accumulation and melt and drainage characteristics (deep ground water vs. shallow subsurface) mediate the effect of climate change. Results show that within the Cascade Range, local variations in bedrock geology and concomitant differences in volume and seasonal fluxes of subsurface water will likely result in significant spatial variability in responses to climate forcing. Specifically, watersheds dominated by High Cascade geology will show greater absolute reductions in summer streamflow with predicted temperature increases.

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Would Hydrologic Climate Changes in Sierra Nevada Streams Influence Trout Persistence?

Cited by 54 publications

References 36 publications

Predicting future threats to the long-term survival of Gila trout using a high-resolution simulation of climate change

Predicting future threats to the long-term survival of Gila trout using a high-resolution simulation of climate change

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

Deep groundwater mediates streamflow response to climate warming in the Oregon Cascades

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