Xác định khả năng xảy ra đặc trưng cực trị cường độ bão và nước dâng do bão đến các khu vực ven biển dựa trên các mô phỏng khí tượng - hải văn

Abstract

Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 was one of most powerful tropical cyclones ever recorded that resulted in severe damage to lives and properties in the Philippines. To avoid the similar risk for Vietnam, Prime Minister requested preparedness planning to respond to this super typhoon, especially the scientific analysis to provide the preliminary prediction for extreme typhoon intensity and storm surge that potentially affecting the coastal areas of Vietnam (Official Letter No. 3912/VPCP-KTN dated May 30, 2014 of the Government Office on the implementation of mission to proactively respond to super typhoon). The use of physical simulation and ensemble predictions in particular allows us to predict the likelihood of extreme typhoon intensity and strom surge in addition to the observed extreme in the coastal areas of Vietnam.