Yellow Cards: Do They Matter?

Abstract

Using data from the Bundesliga, the top German football league (American "soccer"), we analyze the effects of yellow and red cards on the probability of victory for a team. For the team receiving the cards, we find that yellow and red cards decrease the probability of victory. However, the number of fouls called increases the probability of victory for that team. We therefore find that aggressive play is valuable, but pushing too hard is detrimental. We also find that the probability change is different for the home and away teams.

Is home-field advantage driven by the fans? Evidence from across the ocean

“…It is also important to note that home-team fouls increase the home team's probability of defeating its opponent by 6% in the Bundesliga and 10% in MLS (both are significant). This result supports a 'playing hard' strategy, but not to the point of receiving cards, consistent with Anders and Rotthoff (2011).…”

“…Since there is no difference in winning by one goal or by multiple goals, we use a binary probit model following Anders and Rotthoff (2011). We analyse the effects of yellow and red cards on match outcome, as well as the impact of attendance.…”

Dissent, sabotage, and leader behaviour in contests: Evidence from European football

“…Previous findings indicate that any type of (severe) misconduct negatively affects a team's success (Anders & Rotthoff, ; Carmichael & Thomas, ; Carmichael, Thomas, & Ward, ; Deutscher & Schneemann, ). Nonetheless, players do engage in both dissents and sabotage.…”

Are Home Field Advantage and Referee Bias Driven by the Fans? Evidence from Across the Ocean

“…Teams get points in football for winning and tying, three and one respectively, but not for losing. Since there is no difference in winning by one goal or by multiple goals, we use a binary probit model following Anders and Rotthoff (2011). We analyze the effects of yellow and red cards on match outcome, as well as the impact of attendance.…”

“…The main focus, the impact of yellow and red cards, are found to have similar impacts in both the Bundesliga(Anders and Rotthoff, 2011) and the English Premier League(Jewell, 2009). …”