Yield Response of Spring Maize under Future Climate and the Effects of Adaptation Measures in Northeast China

Abstract

Agriculture production has been found to be the most sensitive sector to climate change. Northeast China (NEC) is one of the world’s major regions for spring maize production and it has been affected by climate change due to increases in temperature and decreases in sunshine hours and precipitation levels over the past few decades. In this study, the CERES-Maize model-v4.7 was adopted to assess the impact of future climatic change on the yield of spring maize in NEC and the effect of adaptation measures in two future periods, the 2030s (2021 to 2040) and the 2050s (2041 to 2060) relative to the baseline (1986 to 2005) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results showed that increased temperatures and the decreases in both the precipitation level and sunshine hours in the NEC at six representative sites in the 2030s and 2050s periods based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios would shorten the maize growth durations by (1–38 days) and this would result in a reduction in maize yield by (2.5–26.4%). Adaptation measures, including altered planting date, supplemental irrigation and use of cultivars with longer growth periods could offset some negative impacts of yield decrease in maize. For high-temperature-sensitive cultivars, the adoption of early planting, cultivar change and adding irrigation practices could lead to an increase in maize yield by 23.7–43.6% and these measures were shown to be effective adaptation options towards reducing yield loss from climate change. The simulation results exhibited the effective contribution of appropriate adaptation measures in eliminating the negative impact of future climate change on maize yield.

Selecting maize cultivars to regulate canopy structure and light interception for high yield

“…Xiao et al. (2020) simulated the future climate by 33 global climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways, the results of which showed that the annual mean daily radiation decreased in the NCP, and the similar results also were found in the Northeast China (Koimbori, Wang, et al., 2022). Therefore, it is important to increase the light interception of the canopy to reduce the negative effects of the decline in the coming of radiation on maize production.…”

“…The radiation use efficiency during the vegetative period of maize was usually higher than that during the reproductive period (Shi et al, 2022), but increasing the light interception during the postsilking period can significantly increase the yield of maize (Zhou et al, 2021). Xiao et al (2020) simulated the future climate by 33 global climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways, the results of which showed that the annual mean daily radiation decreased in the NCP, and the similar results also were found in the Northeast China (Koimbori, Wang, et al, 2022). Therefore, it is important to increase the light interception of the canopy to reduce the negative effects of the decline in the coming of radiation on maize production.…”

Estimation of Spring Maize Planting Dates in China Using the Environmental Similarity Method

“…Process-based crop models serve as primary scientific tools for estimating crop yield, assessing the impact of environmental changes, and guiding adaptive measures under climate change [4,7,8]. Crop productivity is intricately linked to crop phenology [9,10], which is significantly influenced by climate, including changes due to warming trends [11][12][13][14][15]. In the phenological stages of crops, the timing of planting significantly impacts crop productivity [16][17][18].…”

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Precipitation Heterogeneity Characteristics in the Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2020

“…Given the scarcity of water resources in Heilongjiang Province and the crucial role of precipitation in agricultural water supply, research into the spatial distribution irregularities of precipitation in the province holds significant practical significance. Such studies can further our understanding of both flood and drought events [33] and help assess the tangible impact of precipitation disparities on the growth of rainfed crops [34][35][36]. Research data used in this study comprise daily precipitation records from 29 meteorological observation stations in Heilongjiang Province spanning from 1961 to 2020.…”