“You Can’t Always Get What You Want”: Prevalence and Predictors of the Aspiration–Attainment Gap After the School-to-Work Transition

Abstract

This study examined the prevalence and predictors of the aspiration–attainment gap (AAG) after the school-to-work transition. We operationalized the AAG as the discrepancy between the socioeconomic status (SES) of young people’s realistic occupational aspirations and that of the position they actually attained. As a case in point, we investigated non-college-bound students transitioning into a vocational education and training (VET) position in Germany. Our aims were twofold: first, to establish how many students experience an AAG of what size; second, to identify characteristics that predict whether students experience an AAG. In this regard, we considered sociostructural characteristics, cognitive ability and school grades, and Big Five personality traits as predictors (i.e., potential determinants) of the AAG. Anal-yses in a representative sample (N = 2,478) of intermediate secondary school (Realschule) students/graduates from the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS; Starting Cohort 4) revealed that 45.9% of students experienced an AAG. Two-part regression models showed that the level of aspirations was the strongest predictor of the experience and size of an AAG. Aspirations also mediated the effect of several other predictors, most importantly parental SES and school grades. Some individual resources proved to have contradictory effects: They indirectly increased the risk of experiencing an AAG by raising aspirations, but at the same time they lowered this risk by directly increasing attainment. Overall, our results suggest that the AAG during the transition from school to VET is a widespread experience among students in Germany that is worthy of further investigation.

Aspiration–Attainment Gaps Predict Adolescents’ Subjective Well-Being After Transition to Vocational Education and Training in Germany

“…This constitutes a substantial contribution to the literature on educational transitions. Because the AAG is a highly prevalent phenomenon (e.g., Nießen et al, 2021) that affects SWB, which in turn is a predictor of various work-related outcomes such as work motivation (e.g., Ton & Hansen, 2001) and later undesired job turnover (e.g., , and because VET determines career options within a specific occupational field, it is likely that SWB serves as a mediator between the AAG and long-term consequences for career progression.…”

“…4 In The answers are coded into various standard occupation classification schemes. As a typical measure of SES, and consistent with some earlier studies (e.g., Nießen et al, 2021), we decided to use ISEI scores. ISEI takes into account the educational level that a specific occupation requires and the income of that occupation (Züll, 2016).…”

“…Three groups of individuals can be distinguished: (a) those who fall short of their occupational aspirations, and experience a negative AAG (underachievement); (b) those who realize their occupational aspirations exactly; and (c) those who surpass their occupational aspirations, and experience a positive AAG (overachievement). AAGs are a widespread but unequally distributed phenomenon among adolescents in vocational education and training (VET) in Germany (e.g., Nießen et al, 2021). Previous studies have shown that, when accessing VET, young people have to make several compromises-for example, in terms of qualification level, SES, career opportunities, job stability, and gender typicality (e.g., Ahrens et al, 2021b;Kleinert & Scheels, 2020;Nießen et al, 2021).…”

“…AAGs are a widespread but unequally distributed phenomenon among adolescents in vocational education and training (VET) in Germany (e.g., Nießen et al, 2021). Previous studies have shown that, when accessing VET, young people have to make several compromises-for example, in terms of qualification level, SES, career opportunities, job stability, and gender typicality (e.g., Ahrens et al, 2021b;Kleinert & Scheels, 2020;Nießen et al, 2021).…”

“…But what are the consequences of experiencing an AAG? Although several scholars have argued that experiencing an AAG-at an early career stage-is likely to have unfavorable long-term consequences for career development (e.g., Nießen et al, 2021;Tomasik et al, 2009), only a few studies have investigated the extent to which occupational AAGs have negative consequences for individuals' subjective well-being (SWB; e.g., Carr, 1997;Hardie, 2014). The consequences of occupational AAGs for SWB are relevant both for individuals and for employers for two reasons.…”