Young cohorts of Russians drink less: age–period–cohort modelling of alcohol use prevalence 1994–2016

Abstract

Background and aimsYoung Russians have been drinking less alcohol, and fewer strong spirits in particular, in recent years. This study aimed to disentangle age, period and birth cohort effects for the first time in Russia to improve our understanding of these trends.DesignAge, period and cohort analysis of annual nationally representative repeated cross‐sectional surveys [Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey– Higher School of Economics (RLMS‐HSE)] using separate logistic models for each gender.SettingRussia 1994–2016.ParticipantsA total of 195 234 respondents aged 14–85 years.MeasurementsAge (14 groups: 14‐17 to 76+ years), period (21 years: 1994–2016) and birth cohorts (17 groups: 1920–24 to 2000–02). Outcome measures were 30‐day overall and beverage‐specific alcohol use prevalence accounting for vodka, moonshine, beer and wine. Controls were per capita income, education, marital status, ethnicity, residence type and regional climate.FindingsControlling for age and period effects, the most recent cohorts had lower rates of participation than older cohorts. Findings were valid for females born in 1995–2002 (P = 0.000) and males born in 1990–94 (P = 0.002) and 1995–2002 (P = 0.000). The period effects were strong in 1994–2003 due to intensive substitution of beer in place of vodka. Period effects were also important in determining a decline of prevalence in 2008–15 due to restrictive alcohol policy. Age effects showed an inverse U‐shaped trend in both genders, except for moonshine and wine. Overall, drinking profiles were beverage‐specific. Models indicated diverse beverage‐specific effects of income, ethnicity, education, marital status and residence on the prevalence of alcohol use.ConclusionThe recent downward trend in alcohol use in Russia appears to be attributable to reduced participation rates among younger cohorts born after 1990.

Patterns in the relationship between life expectancy and gross domestic product in Russia in 2005–15: a cross-sectional analysis

“…Alcohol policy measures implemented in 2005–07, which included stricter control of alcohol manufacture, processing, and sale, were followed by substantial drops in mortality 10 . This result is consistent with evidence that after the mid-2000s, the Russian population experienced decreases in consumption of vodka, although the present levels are still high 29 . The other positive development is a reduction in male smoking that has been apparent since around 2010,30, 31 although once again it is still much higher than in other high-income countries.…”

Decline in alcohol consumption in Russia: Collectivity or polarisation?

“…Previous studies have shown a decline in alcohol consumption in Russia since 2007, particularly among younger cohorts [1], similar to many other developed countries [2,3]. Rosstat sales data indicated that the average volume of per capita alcohol consumption in grams of pure alcohol decreased by 39.6% from 2007 to 2018.…”

A Changeable Relation Between Alcohol and Life Expectancy in Russia

“…According to Nemtsov et al, the continuous mortality decrease during the late 2000s and 2010s was determined by alcohol. We think that this is only partly true, but we agree that the decline in the alcohol-related mortality, the alcohol policy measures of 2005-2007, and the favorable changes in the alcohol habits of younger Russians (Radaev & Roshchina, 2019) have substantially contributed to the overall improvement.…”