'Your Heart Forecast': a new approach for describing and communicating cardiovascular risk?

Wells, Susan; Kerr, Andrew; Eadie, Stewart; Wiltshire, Chris; Jackson, Rod

doi:10.1136/hrt.2009.191320

Cited by 62 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 19 publications

(17 reference statements)

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“…8,9,13 Five-year absolute risk is by definition a smaller number than 10-year absolute risk, and people have a tendency to ignore the base rate for probabilistic information, including the time frame of health statistics. 36 Moreover, people are so familiar with their own age that it stands as an available benchmark to compare heart age to.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Participants completed a CVD risk assessment based on Australian absolute risk guidelines and the New Zealand Heart Foundation's approach to calculating heart age, using the 5-year Framingham risk equation 9,21,25 and determining heart age by comparing a participant's current absolute risk to the age at which they would reach that absolute risk if they had 'ideal' risk factors (i.e. non-smoker, systolic blood pressure 120 mmHg, total/HDL cholesterol ratio 4).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…9,21 Nor have there been any studies investigating the effect of communicating younger heart age, or presenting heart age in different graphical formats. This study aimed to address these gaps in the literature by experimentally testing the effect of heart age on psychological and behavioural outcomes compared to 5-year absolute risk in low (i.e., 5-year absolute risk of a CVD event <10%), to moderate risk (10-15% AR) patients, according to the Australian guidelines.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The New Zealand Heart Foundation introduced an online calculator to promote the use of absolute risk guidelines in 2010 including both short-term (5-year) absolute risk and heart age in a line graph format, showing how CVD risk will increase over time if current risk factors remain the same compared to if they were ideal. 9 A pre-post study suggested that this tool may increase clinician understanding and confidence regarding the use of absolute risk, but patient outcomes were not assessed. 10 Recent clinical guidelines in the UK specifically advocate using heart age for lower risk patients and even include medication recommendations based on heart age.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…non-smoker, systolic blood pressure 120 mmHg, total/HDL cholesterol ratio 4). 9 Older heart age than current age indicates elevated but modifiable risk, even if the short-term absolute risk of a CVD event is low (see Box 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Is the “Heart Age” Concept Helpful or Harmful Compared to Absolute Cardiovascular Disease Risk? An Experimental Study

et al. 2015

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Is the “Heart Age” Concept Helpful or Harmful Compared to Absolute Cardiovascular Disease Risk? An Experimental Study

et al. 2015

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Composite Risk Scores

Brown

Kuk

2016

Lifestyle Medicine

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Transportability of the updated diabetes prediction model from Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study to a Middle Eastern adult population: community-based cohort study

2010

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We validated the transportability of the updated diabetes prediction model from Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, to a Middle Eastern population. We investigated 3,721 participants of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) aged ≥20 years, free of diabetes at baseline. They underwent a standard 75gr 2-h post-challenge plasma glucose test that was repeated every 3 years using the same protocol. All the models were tested with respect to discrimination and calibration. We confirm the findings of Kahn et al. (Ann Intern Med 150(11):741-751, 2009) in a middle-aged, Middle Eastern population. We obtained the same predictive discrimination for the ARIC model (C statistic: men 0.790 and women 0.829) as for the TLGS' own model (men 0.824 and women 0.847) and validated a good calibration for the updated ARIC diabetes prediction model in the TLGS sample. Among men, optimal cut-point was set to the score of 31 where the maximum value of sensitivity (71.6%) plus specificity (75.3%) was achieved. Among women, the optimal point was set to the score of 38 with sensitivity of 67.1% and specificity of 85.0%. The updated ARIC model predicted the individual diabetes risk with a high level of sensitivity and specificity in the TLGS population, which was comparable with that of original sample. More parsimonious model incorporating age, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, pulse rate, and fasting plasma glucose, which were significantly associated with the risk of incident diabetes in the TLGS population, could be equally effective in predicting diabetes.

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'Your Heart Forecast': a new approach for describing and communicating cardiovascular risk?

Cited by 62 publications

References 19 publications

Is the “Heart Age” Concept Helpful or Harmful Compared to Absolute Cardiovascular Disease Risk? An Experimental Study

Is the “Heart Age” Concept Helpful or Harmful Compared to Absolute Cardiovascular Disease Risk? An Experimental Study

Composite Risk Scores

Transportability of the updated diabetes prediction model from Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study to a Middle Eastern adult population: community-based cohort study

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