Youth labor market vulnerabilities: evidence from Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the prevalence and drivers of employment vulnerability among youth in Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia, and their propensity to transition to better jobs over time.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis is based on longitudinal data from Labor Market Panel Surveys spanning 6–20 years. The authors use transition matrices to examine the prevalence of transitions between labor market statuses for the same individuals over time, distinguishing between youth and non-youth, and men and women, as well as multinomial logistic regressions that control for individual and family background, including previous labor market status, family wealth and parental education.FindingsThe paper finds that youth in all three countries were disadvantaged in terms of labor market outcomes with most young men in particular ending up in vulnerable jobs while women of all ages were most likely to exit the labor market all together, unless they had formal jobs. Moreover, youth who started out in the labor market in a vulnerable job were unlikely to move to a better-quality job over time. Family wealth, parental education and father's occupation were found to be important determinants of labor market outcomes and vulnerability, even after a long period of work experience.Social implicationsThe paper finds that wealth effects, parental education and occupation effects follow workers throughout their careers, implying low equality of opportunity and inter-generational and lifetime mobility.Originality/valueThe findings indicate worsening labor market outcomes over time, heavily influenced by family background. High levels of vulnerable employment persistence, regardless of skill and experience, reinforce the importance of initial labor market outcome on the quality of lifetime employment prospects.

Labour market dynamics and youth unemployment in the Middle East and North Africa: Evidence from Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia

“…The share of the very long‐term unemployed among the female unemployed, at 50%, was lower in Tunisia in 2014 compared with Jordan in 2016 (65%) and Egypt in 2018 (77%). The lower female unemployment rates and relatively lower female long‐term unemployment in Tunisia may be related to higher rates of employment for women in Tunisia than Jordan or Egypt (Alazzawi & Hlasny, 2022). In Egypt and Jordan, most of these long‐term unemployed women are holding out for a government job, but have little desire or inclination to accept a job, especially an informal job, in the private sector, which is usually what is available to them (Barsoum & Abdalla, 2022).…”

Determinants of school to work transition and COVID-19

“…Labor employment vulnerabilities apart from EU While youth unemployment and slow STWT is one of the significant problems in some countries within the EU region, an almost similar situation also prevails in the MENA region, where shockingly, youth unemployment is highest, at 25.8% in 2019 (Alazzawi and Hlasny, 2022). According to ILO (2021), the women's unemployment rate in this region is twice that of men, marked at 42.6%.…”

“…And due to this difference, people either choose informal sector jobs or migrate elsewhere for better opportunities (Barsoum and Abdalla, 2020;Barsoum, 2015;Binzel, 2011). Alazzawi and Hlasny (2022) investigated the prevalence and drivers of employment vulnerability among youth in Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia and their propensity to transition to better jobs over time. The authors used transition matrices to examine the prevalence of transitions between labor market statuses for the same individuals over time for young and adult workers and by gender.…”

Labour Market Segmentation and Formalising Informality in Mena Countries

“…COVID has exacerbated the reluctance of employers to invest in workers, and encouraged the shift from regular to irregular platform or gig employment. This has particularly affected women and youths putting them at a substantial risk of falling into vulnerable employment (AlAzzawi & Hlasny, 2022). In light of the pre-existing structural obstacles in accessing decent jobs, a break from regular service caused by COVID-19 impairs their ability to get back on their feet (Hlasny & AlAzzawi, 2022a,b).…”

“…Occupational transition matrices of non-student youths (aged under 30) in several MENA countries over substantially comparable periods in the last decade offer a view of the evolving opportunities for lifetime mobility (AlAzzawi & Hlasny, 2022). Beyond the different configurations of the respective labour markets, the comparison of Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia reveals three distinct patterns.…”