Zero-Emission Pathway for the Global Chemical and Petrochemical Sector

Abstract

The chemical and petrochemical sector relies on fossil fuels and feedstocks, and is a major source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The techno-economic potential of 20 decarbonisation options is assessed. While previous analyses focus on the production processes, this analysis covers the full product life cycle CO2 emissions. The analysis elaborates the carbon accounting complexity that results from the non-energy use of fossil fuels, and highlights the importance of strategies that consider the carbon stored in synthetic organic products—an aspect that warrants more attention in long-term energy scenarios and strategies. Average mitigation costs in the sector would amount to 64 United States dollars (USD) per tonne of CO2 for full decarbonisation in 2050. The rapidly declining renewables cost is one main cause for this low-cost estimate. Renewable energy supply solutions, in combination with electrification, account for 40% of total emissions reductions. Annual biomass use grows to 1.3 gigatonnes; green hydrogen electrolyser capacity grows to 2435 gigawatts and recycling rates increase six-fold, while product demand is reduced by a third, compared to the reference case. CO2 capture, storage and use equals 30% of the total decarbonisation effort (1.49 gigatonnes per year), where about one-third of the captured CO2 is of biogenic origin. Circular economy concepts, including recycling, account for 16%, while energy efficiency accounts for 12% of the decarbonisation needed. Achieving full decarbonisation in this sector will increase energy and feedstock costs by more than 35%. The analysis shows the importance of renewables-based solutions, accounting for more than half of the total emissions reduction potential, which was higher than previous estimates.

1921–2021: A Century of Renewable Ammonia Synthesis

“…Key factors for the renaissance of renewable ammonia production include: (1) increasing carbon emission penalties, (2) the decreasing cost of renewable electricity from solar and wind, (3) the decreasing cost of electrolyzers and scale-up of electrolyzer capacity, and (4) the development of novel electrolysis technologies [7,21,72]. In fact, Saygin and Gielen [73] estimated a renewable ammonia production of 495 Mt by 2050 in their 1.5 • C scenario, which is nearly three times the current global ammonia production.…”

Catalysis for e-Chemistry: Need and Gaps for a Future De-Fossilized Chemical Production, with Focus on the Role of Complex (Direct) Syntheses by Electrocatalysis

“…The impact is potentially to lower rather than increase the production costs as instead often claimed. Saygin and Gielen, 56 for example, estimated that “achieving full decarbonisation in this sector will increase energy and feedstock costs by more than 35%”. Shreve 57 indicated that replacing fossil fuel power systems in the United States could cost up to $4.7 trillion.…”

Plastics and climate change—Breaking carbon lock-ins through three mitigation pathways

“…In one scenario, decarbonizing part of the petrochemical sector through green hydrogen would require the combined current electricity production of the United States and China. 152 Recycle and circulate a circular economy Recycling of plastics has recently become the dominant mitigation pathway for decreasing the negative environmental impacts of plastics, including GHG emissions but primarily marine plastic pollution, and an important part of strategies for a circular economy. 153 Using recycled plastics for new products avoids the most energy-intensive steps of virgin plastic production, thereby significantly reducing the related climate impact.…”