ZIP Code-Level Estimation of Air Quality and Health Risk Due to Particulate Matter Pollution in New York City

Abstract

Exposure to PM 2.5 is associated with hundreds of premature mortalities every year in New York City (NYC). Current air quality and health impact assessment tools provide county-wide estimates but are inadequate for assessing health benefits at neighborhood scales, especially for evaluating policy options related to energy efficiency or climate goals. We developed a new ZIP Code-Level Air Pollution Policy Assessment (ZAPPA) tool for NYC by integrating two reduced form models—Community Air Quality Tools (C-TOOLS) and the Co-Benefits Risk Assessment Health Impacts Screening and Mapping Tool (COBRA)—that propagate emissions changes to estimate air pollution exposures and health benefits. ZAPPA leverages custom higher resolution inputs for emissions, health incidences, and population. It, then, enables rapid policy evaluation with localized ZIP code tabulation area (ZCTA)-level analysis of potential health and monetary benefits stemming from air quality management decisions. We evaluated the modeled 2016 PM 2.5 values against observed values at EPA and NYCCAS monitors, finding good model performance (FAC2, 1; NMSE, 0.05). We, then, applied ZAPPA to assess PM 2.5 reduction-related health benefits from five illustrative policy scenarios in NYC focused on (1) commercial cooking, (2) residential and commercial building fuel regulations, (3) fleet electrification, (4) congestion pricing in Manhattan, and (5) these four combined as a “citywide sustainable policy implementation” scenario. The citywide scenario estimates an average reduction in PM 2.5 of 0.9 μg/m 3 . This change translates to avoiding 210–475 deaths, 340 asthma emergency department visits, and monetized health benefits worth $2B to $5B annually, with significant variation across NYC’s 192 ZCTAs. ZCTA-level assessments can help prioritize interventions in neighborhoods that would see the most health benefits from air pollution reduction. ZAPPA can provide quantitative insights on health and monetary benefits for future sustainability policy development in NYC.

Dynamic Traffic Data in Machine-Learning Air Quality Mapping Improves Environmental Justice Assessment

“…4,5 It is well-documented that racial-ethnic minorities and low-income groups are constantly exposed to disproportionately higher levels of ambient air pollutants within megacities. 6,7 Hence, it has often been a focus of environmental justice (EJ) research. 8 Metropolitan areas always suffer from more public health threats due to worse air quality and dense population.…”

“…Air pollution remains one of the most critical public health threats globally, due to the premature mortality resulting from exposures to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), etc. − Despite air pollution having substantially improved over the recent decades in the U.S., the exposure inequalities are still deeply rooted in the socioeconomic disparity of various racial, ethnic, and income groups. , It is well-documented that racial-ethnic minorities and low-income groups are constantly exposed to disproportionately higher levels of ambient air pollutants within megacities. , Hence, it has often been a focus of environmental justice (EJ) research …”

The Effects of Wildfire Smoke on Asthma and Allergy

“…Studies have applied increasingly sophisticated and detailed exposure assessment methods to gain knowledge of risk factors, dose–response, and clues as to mechanisms of disease. Recent examples include the use of zip code-level air pollution assessments in New York City to estimate reductions in mortality and asthma morbidity resulting from specific air quality improvements [ 2 ], and the use of land-use regression models for air pollutant exposure in a large prospective longitudinal cohort in the United Kingdom, to estimate risk of developing chronic lung disease in a healthy adult population [ 3 ].…”

Sources of air pollution-related health impacts and benefits of radially applied transportation policies in 14 US cities

“…Many studies have also focused on assessing the effectiveness of enacted or proposed emission reduction scenarios, sometimes leveraging source apportionment approaches (Fann et al, 2012;Zhang et al, 2017;Yang et al, 2019). One study leveraged reduced form models to identify ZIP Codelevel health impacts of city-wide policy scenarios including fleet electrification and congestion pricing and estimated reductions in PM 2.5 concentrations resulting in health and monetary benefits (Shukla et al, 2022) that varied at the neighborhood scale. Another recent study identified changes in vehicle miles traveled by clean buses in New York City and noted reductions in annual concentrations of NO, NO 2 , and BC between 2009(Lovasi et al, 2022.…”