Zones where corner kicks are most effective in the penalty box: Is there a sweet spot?

Abstract

This research aims to evaluate the effectiveness of corner kicks, analyze the goal patterns resulting from corner kicks, and develop a model for the implementation of optimal corner kick strategies. The study used a descriptive retrospective design, and the data consisted of 455.898 corner kicks from matches played by 768 teams in 33 different leagues and an international tournament (UEFA). Six different models based on logistic regression were developed and analyzed. The results showed that more goals were scored from certain zones (1c, 2b, and 2c) inside the penalty area than from others ( p < 0.001). According to logistic regression, zones 1c and 2c increased the probability of scoring a goal by 1.12 and 1.08 times, respectively, compared to other regions. In addition, it is noticeable that the probability of scoring from the zones varies considerably depending on the type of kick. Further results showed that there were no statistically significant differences between goals scored from in-swing and out-swing corners, but significant differences were found for the other types of corners. Finally, 3.1% of all corners resulted in goals, and 69% of those goals resulted in a draw or the team taking the lead in the match. For these reasons, it is important to develop new corner-kick strategies in order to score goals and win matches.