Zoning of Ecuador According to Maximum Magnitudes of Earthquakes and their Frequency of Occurrence using Statistical Models Estimated by Maximum Likelihood

Bustos, Sandra Lorena Garcia; Navarrete, Steven; Chancay, Angel; Mendoza, Marcos; Pincay, Marcela; Teran, Miguel

doi:10.35378/gujs.780279

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 31 publications

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“…In contrast, Pavlenko (2017) utilized a generalized extreme value approach for calculating Japan's seismic hazard curves. Bustos (2021) used extreme value and Poisson regression methods to characterize the seismicity of five zones of Ecuador through cluster analysis. Zimbidis et al (2007), Pisarenko et al (2010), and Al Abbasi et al (2018) utilized the Extreme value method for earthquake prediction in different regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generalized Extreme Value Distribution for Modeling Earthquake Risk in Makran Subduction Zone Using Extreme Value Theory

Rehman,

Zhang

2023

Idn. J. Earth Sci.

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The long-term pattern of severe incidents is one of the most crucial and fascinating topics of seismic events. This work aims to analyze the maximum annual earthquake magnitude in the Makran subduction zone using extreme value theory by implementing the block maxima method. The seismic data utilized for the current study was collected from the International Seismological Center (ISC) ranging from 1934 to 2022. The extreme parameters have fitted utilizing the generalized extreme value distribution. Numerous plots of the generalized extreme value distribution approach gave the accuracy of the used model when fitted to seismic data of the Makran subduction zone. Using the profile likelihood approach, the shape parameters (?) calculated is 0.29. According to the model fit, the Fréchet distribution is the best model for predicting the annual maximum earthquake magnitude in the Makran subduction zone. The estimated return levels for different return periods 10, 20, 50, and 100 are 6.35, 6.81, 7.58, and 8.31, respectively, indicating that an earthquake's maximum magnitude is increasing across the future 100 years. We also computed the profile likelihood to achieve a precise confidence interval. Thus, the 1945 earthquake of the Makran region with magnitude 8.1(Mw) was one of the most significant events in this area and occurred once every 100 years. The significance of this research is to inform decision-makers to implement suitable risk-mitigation methods.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generalized Extreme Value Distribution for Modeling Earthquake Risk in Makran Subduction Zone Using Extreme Value Theory

Rehman,

Zhang

2023

Idn. J. Earth Sci.

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The parameter estimation of the COVID-19 death based on the Gumbel distribution through the multi-objective programming: Turkey case

Demir Yurtseven,

Koçak,

Örkcü

2024

Gazi University Journal of Science

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Nearly all nations, including Turkey, were impacted by the 2019 new coronavirus (COVID-19) infections that Wuhan, China reported as the disease's first official case. Turkey is one of the most impacted nations in the globe because to the high number of infected patients. To comprehend the pattern of the virus's propagation and its impacts, it is crucial of examine the pandemic statistics of Turkey. The Gumbel distribution is used to model the maximum distribution of several samples with various distributions. Therefore, we used the Gumbel distribution to estimate the daily number of COVID-19-related deaths. In this study, based on the RMSE, R2, and Theil coefficient method's multi-objective programming approach, the parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution is proposed. A comprehensive Monte-Carlo simulation study was conducted to examine the performance of single-objective RMSE, R2, Theil’s coefficient and multi-objective RMSE-R2, RMSE-Theil, R2-Theil, RMSE-R2-Theil programming estimation methods. When the simulation results were analyzed, the case formed by the RMSE-R2-Theil estimator has the best Def value for all cases. The application of the real dataset containing COVID-19 death data is examined and it can be seen that Theil, RMSE-Theil, and R2-Theil were better estimators for winter data, while RMSE was a better estimator for autumn and autumn-winter data.

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Zoning of Ecuador According to Maximum Magnitudes of Earthquakes and their Frequency of Occurrence using Statistical Models Estimated by Maximum Likelihood

Cited by 2 publications

References 31 publications

Generalized Extreme Value Distribution for Modeling Earthquake Risk in Makran Subduction Zone Using Extreme Value Theory

Generalized Extreme Value Distribution for Modeling Earthquake Risk in Makran Subduction Zone Using Extreme Value Theory

The parameter estimation of the COVID-19 death based on the Gumbel distribution through the multi-objective programming: Turkey case

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