Zur Prognose der Lebenserwartung in Deutschland: Ein Vergleich verschiedener Verfahren

This paper presents a stochastic model to forecast the German population and labor supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, our population forecast applies principal components analysis to birth, mortality, emigration, and immigration rates, which allows for the reduction of dimensionality and accounts for correlation of the rates. Labor force participation rates are estimated by means of an econometric time series approach. All time series are forecast by stochastic simulation using the bootstrap method. As our model also distinguishes between German and foreign nationals, different developments in fertility, migration, and labor participation could be predicted. The results show that even rising birth rates and high levels of immigration cannot break the basic demographic trend in the long run. An important finding from an endogenous modeling of emigration rates is that high net migration in the long run will be difficult to achieve. Our stochastic perspective suggests therefore a high probability of substantially decreasing the labor supply in Germany.

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Zur Prognose der Lebenserwartung in Deutschland: Ein Vergleich verschiedener Verfahren

Abstract: Mortalität, Sterbetafel, Prognose, Brass-Verhältnismodell, C53, I12, J11, Mortality, Life Table, Forecasting, Brass-Relational-Model,

Cited by 5 publications

References 33 publications

Die künftige Entwicklung der Erkrankungszahlen von Darmkrebs und Lungenkrebs

Die künftige Entwicklung der Erkrankungszahlen von Darmkrebs und Lungenkrebs

The forecasting performance of mortality models

Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model

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