Революционные События XXI Века: Предварительный Количественный Анализ

Goldstone, Jack Α.; Гринин, Леонид; Ustyuzhanin, Vadim; Korotayev, Andrey

doi:10.17976/jpps/2023.04.05

Полис

2023

DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2023.04.05

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Революционные События XXI Века: Предварительный Количественный Анализ

Jack Α. Goldstone

Леонид Гринин²,

Vadim Ustyuzhanin³

et al.

Abstract: Авторы изучают важные аспекты революционного процесса XXI века. Рассматриваются причины, по которым революционный процесс начала XXI столетия проходит довольно бурно, а также прогнозы, обещающие, что и в будущем он будет весьма активным; анализируются революционные тренды, в том числе особо тревожный – рост числа радикальных исламистских революционных выступлений. Все сказанное иллюстрируется статистическим анализом различного типа революций. Насколько авторам известно, количественных исследований революций по… Show more

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2024

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Cited by 4 publications

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Is the Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies Still Coming?

Grinin,

Korotayev

2024

Critical Sociology

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Introduction-Why Have We Chosen the Generational Aspect?Recently, several significant studies have been published on revolutions, various aspects of the theory of revolution, and revolutions of recent times-the 21st century. Some of these studies will be discussed in this review essay. These studies deserve the most careful reading and analysis, consideration of their strengths and weaknesses in relation to the aspect of research chosen by the authors, theoretical approaches, analysis of their methodology, or the depth of showing certain revolutionary events, which must be done. However, in this review essay, we will analyze these works from the point of view of considering the prospects of the so-called fifth generation of revolution studies. Of course, this generational approach is subject to criticism. For example, Radu-Alexandru Cucută (2013) talks about generational deadlock and writes that 'the generational perspective remains impermissibly flexible and elusive, ignoring the main paradigmatic debates within the field of study ' (p. 1107).Colin Beck and Daniel Ritter (2021) are also generally critical of this bias, which creates a false premise. They encourage us to look at ideas, rather than attributing them to one generation or another. There is a rational grain in this criticism. In no case should we limit ourselves to such an analysis or make the division into generations of researchers absolute. But, however, one cannot absolutize any approach as the only correct and true one. Each approach has its own advantages

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Is the Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies Still Coming?

Grinin,

Korotayev

2024

Critical Sociology

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The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part I: When, Why, and How Did It Emerge

Korotayev,

Grinin,

Ustyuzhanin

et al. 2024

Critical Sociology

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There are grounds for claiming that a new (‘fifth’) generation of revolution studies has emerged in the 21st century. It can be noted that the characteristics of this generation are as follows: a tendency toward a macro-level outlook, encompassing both historical and geographical dimensions, coupled with a propensity toward a systemic approach; study of distinct types of revolutionary processes, such as Mark Beissinger’s ‘urban civic revolutions’, and the pivotal revolutionary innovations, including the impact of new information technologies in recent revolutions; innovations regarding the factors and causes of revolutions and innovations in the analysis of the factors influencing the choice of revolutionary strategy and revolution outcomes; a special interest in the topic of revolutionary waves/‘the diffusion of revolution’; a strong understanding that armed and unarmed revolutionary events are characterized by significantly different factors, structure, and consequences; a focus on the study of unarmed revolutionary episodes/‘non-violent maximalist campaigns’; the use of global databases of revolutionary events; extensive use of modern methods of quantitative analysis.

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Revolution and Democracy in the Twenty-First Century

Korotayev,

Zhdanov,

Grinin

et al. 2024

Cross-Cultural Research

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In this article, we analyze an inverted U-shaped relationship between the type of regime (on the autocracy-democracy scale) and the risks of revolutionary destabilization. Anocracies tend to be more vulnerable to revolutionary destabilization than full autocracies or full (consolidated) democracies. We also point to a strong positive association between the weakening of autocracies and the risks of revolutionary destabilization that exist among full autocracies. In addition, full autocracies moving towards democracy and transitioning to partial autocratic rule are at increased risk of revolutionary destabilization, which explains why the current global spread of democracy is associated with an upswing rather than a downswing in revolutionary activity. Finally, strong forms of revolutionary destabilization are quite possible in cases of deconsolidation of consolidated democracy, which additionally suggests that the era of revolutions will not end in the foreseeable future. Thus, we propose a general theory on the effect of regime type on revolutionary destabilization and address inconsistencies among various studies regarding the impact of the regime on revolutionary instability. The conducted research also allows us to contribute to the answer to the question posed by many researchers of revolutions at the end of the last century – will the era of revolutions end with the global spread of democracy? Our analysis suggests that if this happens someday, it will not be in any foreseeable future.

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Революционные События XXI Века: Предварительный Количественный Анализ

Cited by 4 publications

References 39 publications

Is the Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies Still Coming?

Is the Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies Still Coming?

The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part I: When, Why, and How Did It Emerge

Revolution and Democracy in the Twenty-First Century

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