The topic of the research is the development of new models and methods to assess the efficiency of port operations of sea passenger ports and terminals in order to effectively plan the work and accurate forecasting of infrastructure development. It is noted that changes in cruise and ferry route networks, especially relevant in the conditions of passenger traffic recovery after the gradual lifting of restrictions due to Covid-19, will directly affect port congestion. It is proposed to include into the sphere of decision-making on management of the sea passenger port the models based on consideration of probabilistic processes of cruise or ferry vessels calls. The Baltic Sea region is chosen as an object of research. The main modern directions in the sphere of sea passenger transportations confirming the gradual recovery of the route networks operation are presented. The flow of cruise and ferry vessels of the sea passenger port “Passenger port St. Petersburg “Marine Facade” is chosen as an object of research. The analysis of loading of berths, the analysis of the size of cruise and ferry ships, the route networks of ferry and cruise lines are carried out. As a result of the research a new stochastic model is presented and comparison with known distribution laws is carried out. Based on the data obtained, a confidence zone for making decisions on port congestion is determined. This area is formed on the basis of an assessment of the study of the dynamics of ship traffic nonstationary intensity, followed by the application of correlation-regression analysis and the characteristics of the random function describing the intervals between individual arrivals of cruise and ferry ships. The proposed model includes the ability to consider different priorities, primarily in terms of vessel length. Digital transport model is built in AnyLogic environment for port congestion study. The received data are used for optimization experiments in AnyLogic software environment with the purpose of complex estimation of the seaport operation for a year. Based on the optimization experiment and simulation, data are generated considering different distribution laws and used for decision making in case of uncertainty for infrastructure modernization. The presented model can be used for substantiation of management decisions both on strategic and tactical levels for assessing the efficiency of investment projects on development of sea passenger ports and terminals.

Passenger and accompanying cargo-passenger maritime transportation on the Baltic Sea acts as systematic elements of the Baltic transnational macro-region. Ships that meet various environmental requirements today operate the ferry routes. The task of ecological safety assessment when introducing new ferry routes takes on special urgency. The paper contains analytical data of the marine ferry transportation industry, the main trends of the industry development. The analysis of the main ferry companies is performed and the main variables for estimating the level of possible pollution of the Baltic Sea are determined. Models for calculation of navigation autonomy by taking into account dimensions of allowable sewage and dry garbage are given. Based on the performed analysis of intensity of operation of sea ferry lines the forecast of areas of the Baltic Sea in which there will be an increase of ecological load is made. The necessity of development of information-measuring system for the assessment of the ecological situation of the Baltic Sea on the main directions of the sea ferry lines is substantiated. The structure of information-measuring system for monitoring of ecological situation at performance of sea ferry transportations is offered.

The efficiency of operation and interaction of “sea ferry/cruise company-sea passenger port-land transport infrastructure” systems directly depends on the dynamic influence of the external environment, which today determines the transition from deterministic models of decision-making to probabilistic ones. These changes on the basis of current trends in the industry in the form of the introduction of large cruise and ferry ships create the need to form a decision- making system for the reasonable modernization of infrastructure for the heads of ports and terminals. It is necessary to systematically modernize both the berthing infrastructure and change the internal processes of passenger handling in the terminal. The problems of forecasting the development of seaports in connection with the gradual recovery of passenger traffic, caused by a long period of restrictions due to COVID-19, are considered in the paper, as the first priority is the resumption of the route networks of the sea regions, which provide local passenger mobility. Based on the investigated models of ports and terminals evolution (Anyport model, Three Generations model, Workport model) it is revealed that today it is necessary to evaluate possible predictive scenarios of port development. The necessity of having the tools allowing to operatively analyze the situation in the sphere of sea ferry transportation and to model the scenarios of port congestion has been revealed and proved. The approach to estimate the variants of berths loading at simultaneous call of several big cruise vessels on the basis of models of mass service systems for subsequent estimation of infrastructure is considered in the paper. The object of the research is the Baltic Sea region and existing routes of cruise and ferry lines. A new theoretical partitioning of the region and sea passenger ports into four sections is proposed. The systematic analysis of all existing cruise and ferry line routes in each area has been carried out; data on cruise and ferry ship size, passenger capacity, average ticket price, and distance between terminals on the route have been presented. On the basis of the formed approach a new digital dynamic route map that allows both to investigate the current state of the route network and to estimate the possible changes is built. On the basis of the received data it is proved that the best development of passenger sea ports and terminals infrastructure is observed in the segment between the countries of Russia-Estonia-Finland-Sweden. Presented sea terminals have successfully realized the possibility of simultaneous reception of two big cruise vessels and modernized infrastructure during the period of restrictions on the reason of COVID-19, which corresponds to the formation of new points of growth in the Baltic Sea region, taking into account recovery of route networks. The generated big data on route networks accurately define the current state in the sphere of sea ferry/cruise transportation and they should be used in new digital simulation transport models when modeling different variants of sea passenger port operation, both at the stage of short-term planning and when solving the group of questions of development forecasting, which is especially relevant in the situation of competition between terminals for passenger traffic.

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The issues of implementation of long-term goals of sustainable development of sea passenger transportation, achievement of transportation results, overcoming the negative impact of factors of unstable external environment, which are determined by the chosen course laid down in the basis of strategic management of ferry transportation and choice of route directions, are investigated in the paper. The study indicates that despite the negative impact of COVID-19 and the resulting delayed passenger demand for cruise services, the potential of the maritime ferry and cruise market is very high. It is noted that since 2021 there is a gradual process of recovery of route networks, which takes place in different regions with different dynamics. Therefore, the goals of ferry companies are to implement several strategic planning tasks, among which the task of designing the most efficient new route network is relevant, while companies can start to implement route networks and destinations based on the existing route networks (e. g. networks and destinations of the Baltic Sea) for 2019. It is emphasized that due to the new possibility to attract additional passenger traffic, detailed research and modelling of different options is needed. The Baltic Sea region is chosen as the object for the study, since the local mobility of passageways makes it possible to renew the routes in the shortest possible time. The data for different seas, characterizing the intervals of decline and justifying the necessity of innovations on the basis of new competitive routes creation, are presented in the study. The subject of the study is routes and route networks of the seas regions. The use of models in the form of graphs and algorithms, such as Dijkstra's algorithm, is proposed for modelling different variants of sea ferry routes architecture. The new ferry route network model is implemented in the J-Circos software environment for the subsequent construction of various intensity diagram options. Due to the flexibility of the interfaces and the software environment it is possible to combine the existing networks in 2019 and the proposed new routes in a single information field. In this way, a new possibility to assess the position of a ferry company on the passenger market and to evaluate the quantitative indicators in relation to the other ferry and cruise companies is considered in the paper. The proposed solutions are included in a separate decision-making flowchart for selecting a promotion strategy in the sea region ferry market. The solutions presented have versatility, the methodology and implementation can also be applied to the other sea regions. A new possibility of representing evolutionary changes in the route networks, which also provides an opportunity to further improve the quality of strategic planning and promotion decision-making, forming a separate area of analytical work of a maritime ferry company, is considered.