La néotectonique de la région des Grands Lacs Volume 47, numéro 3, 1993 URI : id.erudit.org/iderudit/032961ar

Seismic hazard assessments conducted in eastern Canada rely on seismological data, which are essential, but alone, inadequate. That is because the earthquake record is too short to provide a representative picture of where large earthquakes have occurred in the past. Consequently, seismic hazard may be underestimated in areas, such as that encompassing western Lake Ontario, that are devoid of documented large earthquakes. To attempt to ascertain the likelihood of a major earthquake occurring in that highly populated and industrialized area, three regionally extensive geophysically expressed lineaments were investigated and the results were combined with available seismological information. The most conspicuous is the Niagara-Pickering linear zone, within which there have been at least two, if not three, periods of brittle faulting, including displacements compatible with the current stress field. It also appears to represent the same major structure as the Akron magnetic boundary in eastern Ohio, the site of the mb = 4.9 Leroy earthquake. The second is the Georgian Bay linear zone, which extends from Georgian Bay to New York State. It displays evidence of recent outcrop-scale faulting, an alignment of earthquakes along its southwestern boundary, and a possible spatial relationship to other earthquakes, including two of M >= 5. Lastly, there is the Hamilton - Lake Erie lineament, which is parallel and proximal to a possible fault and coincides with a linear array of small to moderate earthquakes. All three converge on the western Lake Ontario area, which has a higher frequency of seismicity than the adjacent areas. Thus, the western Lake Ontario area might have a greater potential to experience a major earthquake than heretofore believed.

Lower Paleozoic bedrock strata, in south-central Ontario and the adjacent part of New York State are covered by a thick (100m+) blanket of Pleistocene glacial and interglacial sediments. The form of the buried bedrock surface has been reconstructed from 70,000 waterwell boreholes that extend through the entire Pleistocene cover using GIS data processing techniques. The sub-drift bedrock surface shows linear channels that connect the basins of lakes Huron, Ontario and Erie and which form part of an ancestral mid-continent Great Lake drainage system prior to modification and infilling during successive Pleistocene glaciations. This relict drainage system is cut across Lower Paleozoic carbonates and elastics up to 500 m thick, but the position of several channels is aligned above terrane boundaries, faults and other deep-seated and poorly understood geophysical anomalies in underlying mid-Proterozoic Grenville basement rocks. Other channels are controlled by a dominant northwest and northeast trending regional joint system. A close relationship among deeply seated geophysical lineaments, basement structures and topographic lineaments cut across thick Paleozoic cover strata suggests a history of Phanerozoic reactivation and upward propagation of fractures from the Precambrian basement. Several basement structures and lineaments are seismically active suggesting ongoing neotectonic activity across the 'stable' craton of south-central Ontario.

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ABSTRACTThe western Lake Ontario region, a traditionally perceived area of low seismic risk, is densely populated and is home to, among other critical facilities, the nuclear reactors of Pickering and Darlington. These and other characteristics of the region call for improved estimates of seismic hazard. Due to a lack of understanding of the causative geological sources and recurrence characteristics of the reported seismic activity, there is considerable uncertainty regarding estimated ground motion parameters, a fundamental component of seismic hazard assessments. To attempt to improve the definition of the seismic source zones and, consequently, seismic hazard assessments, the hypocentres of about 30 local earthquakes were recomputed. A new data compilation, based on the revised locations or those with the least travel-time residuals, shows that local microearthquakes (ML"3.5) generally occur along, or at the intersection of, prominent aeromagnetic or gravity anomalies. A notable seismicity trend extends in a northeast-southwest direction between Toronto and Hamilton, and is bounded by magnetic lineaments. A major geological structure, the Central Metasedimentary Belt Boundary Zone (CMBBZ), coincides with a strong aeromagnetic anomaly which extends to the northeast into the Western Québec Seismic Zone. This magnetic lineament also extends to the south, across Lake Ontario, to join the Akron (Ohio) magnetic boundary that was associated with several historical earthquakes and with a mb=4.9 earthquake in 1986. Most of the seismic events recorded instrumentally in the 20th century have occurred within a depth range of 5 to 20 km. This observation supports the correlation of local earthquakes with deep geophysical and geological features, suggesting contemporary reactivation of basement structures. This may imply that a more conservative deterministic hazard estimate is needed to verify the probabilistic approach currently used to assess seismic hazard in southern Ontario.