Abstract. We discuss fast ejecta observed at 1 AU during a period of increasing solar activity from February 5, 1998, to November 29, 1999. "Fast ejecta" are transient, noncorotating flows that move past the Earth during a day or more, with a maximum speed >600 km s -•. We identify two classes of fast ejecta at 1 AU: (1) magnetic clouds, whose local magnetic structure is that of a flux rope; and (2) "complex ejecta," which are not flux ropes and have disordered magnetic fields. Nearly equal numbers of magnetic clouds and complex ejecta were found: four and five, respectively. The complex ejecta had weaker magnetic fields and higher proton temperatures than the magnetic clouds on average. The average/3 for the complex ejecta (0.25 _+ 0.09) was larger than that for the magnetic clouds (0.06 +_ 0.04). The complex ejecta and magnetic clouds had comparable speeds on average, namely, 558 +_ 80 and 500 _+ 63 km s -•, respectively. Using the duration of the stream and that of the counterstreaming electrons to measure the ejecta, the average time for the complex ejecta to move past ACE was 3 days, which is more than twice that for the magnetic clouds. All of the magnetic clouds contain some material with a high a/proton density ratio (>8%) and a density ratio of 07+/06+ > 1. However, three of the five complex ejecta did not contain material with 07+/06+ > 1, although four of the complex ejecta contained material with 07+/06+ > 1. All of the magnetic clouds caused geomagnetic storms. Three complex ejecta produced no geomagnetic storms. The other two complex ejecta produced geomagnetic storms indirectly: one by driving a shock into the rear of a magnetic cloud and the other by amplifying southward fields in its leading edge and interaction region. Most of the magnetic clouds were associated with a single solar source, but nearly all of the complex ejecta could have had multiple sources. We find evidence in the solar observations that some of the complex ejecta could have been produced by the interaction of two or more coronal mass ejections (CMEs). At least three CMEs might have interacted to produce a large complex ejection that arrived at 1 AU on May 4, 1998. This complex ejection was overtaking and interacting with a magnetic cloud. We discuss several hypotheses concerning the structures and origins of complex ejecta, including the likely possibility that some complex ejecta are formed by a series of interacting CMEs of various sizes.

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Predicting the impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the southward component of their magnetic field is one of the key goals of space weather forecasting. We present a new model, the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO), for predicting the in situ magnetic field of CMEs. We first simulate a CME using ForeCAT, a model for CME deflection and rotation resulting from the background solar magnetic forces. Using the CME position and orientation from ForeCAT, we then determine the passage of the CME over a simulated spacecraft. We model the CME’s magnetic field using a force-free flux rope and we determine the in situ magnetic profile at the synthetic spacecraft. We show that FIDO can reproduce the general behavior of four observed CMEs. FIDO results are very sensitive to the CME’s position and orientation, and we show that the uncertainty in a CME’s position and orientation from coronagraph images corresponds to a wide range of in situ magnitudes and even polarities. This small range of positions and orientations also includes CMEs that entirely miss the satellite. We show that two derived parameters (the normalized angular distance between the CME nose and satellite position and the angular difference between the CME tilt and the position angle of the satellite with respect to the CME nose) can be used to reliably determine whether an impact or miss occurs. We find that the same criteria separate the impacts and misses for cases representing all four observed CMEs.