Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.

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The numbers of gentoo penguins Pygoscelis papua breeding at subantarctic Marion Island fell by 40% from 1994/95 to 2002/03, from 1 352 pairs to 806 pairs. Apart from a slight increase in 1998/99, there was a steady decrease in numbers breeding between 1995/96 and 2000/01, when the population stabilized. There is indication that in some years not all breeders nested and that some birds relocated to another colony after disturbance. From first clutches, pairs on average fledged between 0.01 chicks in 1997/98 and 0.58 chicks in 2002/03 (mean 0.38 ± 0.21). In 1994/95, replacement clutches increased the overall production of fledged chicks by 11%. Based on demographic parameters measured at other localities, the production of chicks at Marion Island was inadequate to maintain the population during the period 1995/96 -2000/01. Consistency in trends in breeding success at five colonies suggests that factors operating at a mesoscale, rather than those specific to particular colonies, often influenced breeding success. Laying was later than normal in 1997/98, when there was almost total breeding failure with large losses of eggs and small chicks to returning Subantarctic skuas Catharacta antarctica. Future research on this Near Threatened species at Marion Island must take full account of its susceptibility to human disturbance.

The number of Crozet shags or cormorants Phalacrocorax [atriceps] melanogenis breeding at subantarctic Marion Island decreased by 68% from 841 pairs in 1994/95 to 272 pairs in 2002/03. The mean number of pairs at colonies also decreased and was significantly related to the overall number of birds breeding in any given season. The decreases coincided with a period of warming and reduced precipitation at Marion Island and with a decrease in the number of gentoo penguins Pygoscelis papua breeding there. Both these seabird species forage inshore and there is considerable overlap in their diets. Nototheniid fish and the decapod Nauticaris marionis continued to be important in the diet of Crozet shags, but a change in dominance among nototheniid prey suggests availability of prey to shags changed after the mid 1980s. Crozet shags breed for the first time when aged three years. It is probable that about 25% of the mature population did not breed in 1997/98, coincident with a strong El Niño Southern Oscillation event. In four seasons, breeding pairs on average fledged 0.30 chicks from first clutches, an amount thought inadequate to sustain the population. Crozet shags at the Prince Edward Islands should now be regarded as Endangered. Placing breeding colonies in the most highly protected zone on Marion Island, considering the establishment of an ex situ population and undertaking a genetic study of the specific status of the Crozet shag are recommended conservation measures.