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During the cross-sectional studies (February 1981 to July 1984) performed by the Group for Epidemiology and Prevention of Cholelithiasis (GREPCO) in Rome, Italy, 161 subjects were identified as having gallstones. Ten subjects did not participate in the prospective follow-up. At entry, 33 of the 151 remaining subjects were symptomatic, and 118 were asymptomatic. Data on incidence of biliary colics, complications, cholecystectomy, and death were collected at least every 2 years. In the initially asymptomatic group, the cumulative probability (% +/- SE) of developing biliary colic was 11.9 +/- 3.0 at 2 years, 16.5 +/- 3.5 at 4 years, and 25.8 +/- 4.6 at 10 years. None of the variables considered as possible modifiers of the natural history were found to be associated with an increased risk of developing biliary colic. The cumulative probability (% +/- SE) of developing complications after 10 years was 3.0 +/- 1.8 in the initially asymptomatic group and 6.5 +/- 4.4 in the symptomatic group (P = NS). Incidence of cholecystectomy was higher in the initially symptomatic than in the asymptomatic group (log-rank test = 2.27; P = .02). Fifteen (53.6%) of the 28 operated in the initially asymptomatic group were submitted to cholecystectomy, although specific symptoms did not occur. Twelve (10.2%) and 2 (6.1%) of the initially asymptomatic and symptomatic subjects died during the follow-up. One patient in the former group died at age 64 of a histologically proven adenocarcinoma of the gallbladder. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that the natural history of gallstones is less benign than is generally considered.

Background & AimsEnvironmental and genetic factors contribute to alcoholic cirrhosis onset. In particular, age at exposure to liver stressors has been shown to be important in progression to fibrosis in hepatitis C individuals. However, no definite data on the role of age at onset of at-risk alcohol consumption are available. Moreover, patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 (PNPLA3) I148M (rs738409) variant has been associated with alcoholic cirrhosis, but only in cross-sectional studies. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of age at onset of at-risk alcohol consumption and PNPLA3 I148M variant on alcoholic cirrhosis incidence.MethodsA total of 384 at-risk alcohol drinkers were retrospectively examined. The association among age at onset of at-risk alcohol consumption, PNPLA3 I148M variant and cirrhosis incidence was tested.ResultsA higher incidence of alcoholic cirrhosis was observed in individuals with an older (≥24 years) compared with a younger (<24) age at onset of at-risk alcohol consumption (P-value < 0.001). Moreover, PNPLA3 148M allele carriers showed an increased incidence of cirrhosis (P-value < 0.001). Both age at onset of at-risk alcohol consumption and PNPLA3 148M allele were independent risk factors for developing cirrhosis (H.R. (95% C.I.): 2.76 (2.18–3.50), P-value < 0.001; 1.53(1.07–2.19), P-value = 0.021 respectively). The 148M allele was associated with a two-fold increased risk of cirrhosis in individuals with a younger compared with an older age at onset of at-risk alcohol consumption (H.R. (95% C.I.): 3.03(1.53–6.00) vs. 1.61(1.09–2.38).ConclusionsAge at onset of at-risk alcohol consumption and PNPLA3 I148M genetic variant are independently associated with alcoholic cirrhosis incidence.