The intensity mapping of the [CII] 158-µm line redshifted to the submillimeter window is a promising probe of the z>4 star formation and its spatial distribution into large-scale structures. To prepare the first-generation experiments (e.g., CONCERTO), we need realistic simulations of the submillimeter extragalactic sky in spectroscopy. We present a new version of the simulated infrared dusty extragalactic sky (SIDES) model including the main submillimeter lines around 1 mm (CO, [CII], [CI]). This approach successfully reproduces the observed line luminosity functions. We then use our simulation to generate CONCERTO-like cubes (125-305 GHz) and forecast the power spectra of the fluctuations caused by the various astrophysical components at those frequencies. Depending on our assumptions on the relation between the star formation rate and [CII] luminosity, and the star formation history, our predictions of the z∼6 [CII] power spectrum vary by two orders of magnitude. This highlights how uncertain the predictions are and how important future measurements will be to improve our understanding of this early epoch. SIDES can reproduce the CO shot noise recently measured at ∼100 GHz by the millimeter-wavelength intensity mapping experiment (mmIME). Finally, we compare the contribution of the different astrophysical components at various redshifts to the power spectra. The continuum is by far the brightest, by a factor of three to 100, depending on the frequency. At 300 GHz, the CO foreground power spectrum is higher than the [CII] one for our base scenario. At lower frequencies, the contrast between [CII] and extragalactic foregrounds is even worse. Masking the known galaxies from deep surveys should allow us to reduce the foregrounds to 20 % of the [CII] power spectrum up to z∼6.5. However, this masking method will not be sufficient at higher redshifts. The code and the products of our simulation are released publicly, and can be used for both intensity mapping experiments and submillimeter continuum and line surveys.

In the submillimeter regime, spectral line scans and line intensity mapping (LIM) are new promising probes for the cold gas content and star formation rate of galaxies across cosmic time. However, both of these two measurements suffer from field-to-field variance. We study the effect of field-to-field variance on the predicted CO and [CII] power spectra from future LIM experiments such as CONCERTO, as well as on the line luminosity functions (LFs) and the cosmic molecular gas mass density that are currently derived from spectral line scans. We combined a 117 deg 2 dark matter lightcone from the Uchuu cosmological simulation with the simulated infrared dusty extragalactic sky (SIDES) approach. The clustering of the dusty galaxies in the SIDES-Uchuu product is validated by reproducing the cosmic infrared background anisotropies measured by Herschel and Planck. We find that in order to constrain the CO LF with an uncertainty below 20%, we need survey sizes of at least 0.1 deg 2 . Furthermore, accounting for the field-to-field variance using only the Poisson variance can underestimate the total variance by up to 80%. The lower the luminosity is and the larger the survey size is, the higher the level of underestimate. At z < 3, the impact of field-to-field variance on the cosmic molecular gas density can be as high as 40% for the 4.6 arcmin 2 field, but drops below 10% for areas larger than 0.2 deg 2 . However, at z > 3 the variance decreases more slowly with survey size and for example drops below 10% for 1 deg 2 fields. Finally, we find that the CO and [CII] LIM power spectra can vary by up to 50% in 1 deg 2 fields. This limits the accuracy of the constraints provided by the first 1 deg 2 surveys.In addition the level of the shot noise power is always dominated by the sources that are just below the detection thresholds, which limits its potential for deriving number densities of faint [CII] emitters. We provide an analytical formula to estimate the field-to-field variance of current or future LIM experiments given their observed frequency and survey size. The underlying code to derive the field-to-field variance and the full SIDES-Uchuu products (catalogs, cubes, and maps) are publicly available.