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In this paper, the classical WPI model is optimized by using principal component analysis, and a PCA based evaluation model is proposed. When the model is applied to the water resources data of Beijing area, the experiments have shown that the evaluation efficiency of WPI is significantly improved.And when used to evaluate WPI in different city and countryside, the optimized model has also achieved satisfying results. On this basis, this paper puts forward a prediction model for future water environment, which has predicted future water resource in the Shan-gan-ning district and also puts forward a set of intervention programs based on related analysis.The date shows that the model is effective in alleviate the water shortage.