Abstract. This research explores the rainfall-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and runoff-ENSO relationships and examines the potential for water resource forecasting using these relationships. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Niño1.2, Niño3, Niño4, and Niño3.4 were selected as ENSO indicators for cross-correlation analyses of precipitation and runoff. There was a significant correlation (95% confidence level) between precipitation and ENSO indicators during three periods: January, March, and from September to November. In addition, monthly streamflow and monthly ENSO indictors were significantly correlated during three periods: from January to March, June, and from October to December (OND), with lag periods between one and twelve months. Because ENSO events can be accurately predicted one to two years in advance using physical modeling of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the lead time for forecasting runoff using ENSO indicators in the Headwaters Region of the Yellow River could extend from one to 36 months. Therefore, ENSO may have potential as a powerful forecasting tool for water resources in the headwater regions of Yellow River.

Many studies have examined that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could result in the variation of rainfall and runoff of different rivers across the world. In this paper, we will look specifically at the Headwaters Region of the Yellow River (HRYR) to explore the rainfall-ENSO and runoff-ENSO relationships and discuss the potential for water resources forecasting using these relationships. Cross-correlation analyses were performed to determine the significant correlation between rainfall, runoff and ENSO indicators (e.g. SOI, Niño 1.2, Niño 3, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4) and the lag period for each relationship. Main result include: (1) there are significant correlation at 95% confidence level during three periods, i.e. January and March, from September to November; (2) there were significant correlations between monthly streamflow and monthly ENSO indictors during three periods, i.e. JFM, June, and OND, with lag periods between one and twelve months. As ENSO events can be accurately predicted one to two years in advances using physical model of coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the lead time for forecasting runoff using ENSO indicator in the HRYR can be extent to one to thirty-six months. Therefore, ENSO may have potential as a powerful forecast tool for water resource in headwater regions of Yellow River

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