Earthquake triggering is the process by which stress changes associated with an earthquake can induce or retard seismic activity in the surrounding region or trigger other earthquakes at great distances. Calculations of static Coulomb stress changes associated with earthquake slip have proven to be a powerful tool in explaining many seismic observations, including aftershock distributions, earthquake sequences, and the quiescence of broad, normally active regions following large earthquakes. Delayed earthquake triggering, which can range from seconds to decades, can be explained by a variety of time-dependent stress transfer mechanisms, such as viscous relaxation, poroelastic rebound, or afterslip, or by reductions in fault friction, such as predicted by rate and state constitutive relations. Rapid remote triggering of earthquakes at great distances (from several fault lengths to 1000s of km) is best explained by the passage of transient (dynamic) seismic waves, which either immediately induce Coulomb-type failure or initiate a secondary mechanism that induces delayed triggering. The passage of seismic waves may also play a significant role in the triggering of near-field earthquakes.

Studies of the Earth's response to large earthquakes can be viewed as large rock deformation experiments in which sudden stress changes induce viscous flow in the lower crust and upper mantle that lead to observable postseismic surface deformation. Laboratory experiments suggest that viscous flow of deforming hot lithospheric rocks is characterized by a power law in which strain rate is proportional to stress raised to a power, n (refs 2, 3). Most geodynamic models of flow in the lower crust and upper mantle, however, resort to newtonian (linear) stress-strain rate relations. Here we show that a power-law model of viscous flow in the mantle with n = 3.5 successfully explains the spatial and temporal evolution of transient surface deformation following the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes in southern California. A power-law rheology implies that viscosity varies spatially with stress causing localization of strain, and varies temporally as stress evolves, rendering newtonian models untenable. Our findings are consistent with laboratory-derived flow law parameters for hot and wet olivine--the most abundant mineral in the upper mantle--and support the contention that, at least beneath the Mojave desert, the upper mantle is weaker than the lower crust.

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Stress changes in the crust due to an earthquake can hasten the failure of neighbouring faults and induce earthquake sequences in some cases. The 1999 Hector Mine earthquake in southern California (magnitude 7.1) occurred only 20 km from, and 7 years after, the 1992 Landers earthquake (magnitude 7.3). This suggests that the Hector Mine earthquake was triggered in some fashion by the earlier event. But uncertainties in the slip distribution and rock friction properties associated with the Landers earthquake have led to widely varying estimates of both the magnitude and sign of the resulting stress change that would be induced at the location of the Hector Mine hypocentre-with estimates varying from -1.4 bar (ref. 6) to +0.5 bar (ref. 7). More importantly, coseismic stress changes alone cannot satisfactorily explain the delay of 7 years between the two events. Here we present the results of a three-dimensional viscoelastic model that simulates stress transfer from the ductile lower crust and upper mantle to the brittle upper crust in the 7 years following the Landers earthquake. Using viscoelastic parameters that can reproduce the observed horizontal surface deformation following the Landers earthquake, our calculations suggest that lower-crustal or upper-mantle flow can lead to postseismic stress increases of up to 1-2 bar at the location of the Hector Mine hypocentre during this time period, contributing to the eventual occurrence of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. These results attest to the importance of considering viscoelastic processes in the assessment of seismic hazard.