The article considers the Voronezh region climate dynamics over a 30-year period in comparison with the previous climate normal. Mathematical analysis of the relationships of cyclic changes in radial increment of native tree species of the south of the Russian Plain – Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris Linnaeus) and English oak (Quercus robur Linnaeus) ‒ with climate factors (air temperature, amount of precipitation) is done. The greatest importance of April and, especially, May sums of precipitation for the formation of radial increment of native species (P. sylvestris and Q. robur) was confirmed. The forecast of changes in stand growth and productivity of the studied species is presented.

The pattern of annual radial growth is influenced by various factors: the local growth conditions, the age structure, and the ecotypes or provenances of trees. A more in-depth approach to the study of specific growth patterns of tree forms is needed to predict the further genesis of forests. This research was carried out on healthy English oak trees of early (EF) and late (LF) phenological forms in Shipov Forest, Voronezh Region. The dendroclimatic analysis was performed on permanent sample plots in wet, dry, and very dry oak stands grown on different soil types. The effect of precipitation on annual ring width was assessed using a one-way ANOVA. The LF showed higher radial growth rates on wet sites than the EF did on dry ones. Their annual radial growth was less stable and more variable compared with the LF. For both phenoforms, the most important radial growth factors are the composite indicators reflecting the ratio of temperature and moisture (Selyaninov’s hydrothermal coefficient and Lang’s rain factor). Generally, the radial growth minima coincided in time on dry and wet sites, and the periods of maximum growth were associated with high-water years.

Exploring linkages between trees increment and meteorological elements is of great importance for understanding biological processes, assess of environmental determinants, defining growth and productivity of forest communities, forecasting growth in connection with changing climatic conditions. Dendroclimatic analysis can be used in planning and implementation of many forestry activities. The paper presents data on the effect of meteorological factors on the radial increment of English oak in isotopologues cultures originating from glague oak forest of serotinous variety. Dendrochronological analysis of radial growth was carried out in accordance with existing methodological developments. In the dynamics of radial growth of trees of English oak, periodicity is observed. 2-3-, 5-7-, 11-, 22-year cycles are seen more clearly. Growth depression is mainly due to the summer droughts with temperatures above average standards and rainfall less than average annual norms. Periods with high radial growth occur in years with high air temperatures and rainfall more than average standards. In terms of impact on the radial increment of English oak meteorological elements are arranged in the following order: hydrometric ratio; precipitation – autumn-winter, summer, annual; air temperature in the vegetation period of active growing season (April, May), summer, annual. Data on the influence of meteorological elements are confirmed by the results of analysis of variance. The highest power of the influence of the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) is 0.39, with precipitation of the warm period of is, the sum of precipitation for the year of is, the lowest effect with temperature is 0.20. Between the air temperature and increment in the warm period there is an inverse relationship: the increase in air temperature reduces growth. Both excess of precipitation and the shortage contribute to the reduction of radial growth.

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