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The number of cattle herds placed under movement restrictions in Great Britain (GB) due to the suspected presence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has progressively increased over the past 25 years despite an intensive and costly test-and-slaughter control program. Around 38% of herds that clear movement restrictions experience a recurrent incident (breakdown) within 24 months, suggesting that infection may be persisting within herds. Reactivity to tuberculin, the basis of diagnostic testing, is dependent on the time from infection. Thus, testing efficiency varies between outbreaks, depending on weight of transmission and cannot be directly estimated. In this paper, we use Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to parameterize two within-herd transmission models within a rigorous inferential framework. Previous within-herd models of bTB have relied on ad-hoc methods of parameterization and used a single model structure (SORI) where animals are assumed to become detectable by testing before they become infectious. We study such a conventional within-herd model of bTB and an alternative model, motivated by recent animal challenge studies, where there is no period of epidemiological latency before animals become infectious (SOR). Under both models we estimate that cattle-to-cattle transmission rates are non-linearly density dependent. The basic reproductive ratio for our conventional within-herd model, estimated for scenarios with no statutory controls, increases from 1.5 (0.26–4.9; 95% CI) in a herd of 30 cattle up to 4.9 (0.99–14.0) in a herd of 400. Under this model we estimate that 50% (33–67) of recurrent breakdowns in Britain can be attributed to infection missed by tuberculin testing. However this figure falls to 24% (11–42) of recurrent breakdowns under our alternative model. Under both models the estimated extrinsic force of infection increases with the burden of missed infection. Hence, improved herd-level testing is unlikely to reduce recurrence unless this extrinsic infectious pressure is simultaneously addressed.

Both badgers and livestock movements have been implicated in contributing to the ongoing epidemic of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in British cattle. However, the relative contributions of these and other causes are not well quantified. We used cattle movement data to construct an individual (premises)-based model of BTB spread within Great Britain, accounting for spread due to recorded cattle movements and other causes. Outbreak data for 2004 were best explained by a model attributing 16% of herd infections directly to cattle movements, and a further 9% unexplained, potentially including spread from unrecorded movements. The best-fit model assumed low levels of cattle-to-cattle transmission. The remaining 75% of infection was attributed to local effects within specific high-risk areas. Annual and biennial testing is mandatory for herds deemed at high risk of infection, as is pre-movement testing from such herds. The herds identified as high risk in 2004 by our model are in broad agreement with those officially designated as such at that time. However, border areas at the edges of high-risk regions are different, suggesting possible areas that should be targeted to prevent further geographical spread of disease. With these areas expanding rapidly over the last decade, their close surveillance is important to both identify infected herds quickly, and limit their further growth.

A case-control study of the factors associated with the risk of a bovine tuberculosis (TB) breakdown in cattle herds was undertaken within the randomized badger culling trial (RBCT). TB breakdowns occurring prior to the 2001 foot-andmouth disease epidemic in three RBCT triplets were eligible to be cases; controls were selected from the same RBCT area. Data from 151 case farms and 117 control farms were analysed using logistic regression. The strongest factors associated with an increased TB risk were movement of cattle onto the farm from markets or farm sales, operating a farm over multiple premises and the use of either covered yard or 'other' housing types. Spreading artificial fertilizers or farmyard manure on grazing land were both associated with decreased risk. These first case-control results from the RBCT will be followed by similar analyses as more data become available.

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