Support of a sustained reduction of energy resource consumption by implementing advanced energy-efficient technologies, including alternative and renewable energy sources, requires a well-reasoned selection of the cost-effective measures so it can be replicated at the «green construction» sites. One of the basic approaches in forming of the present-day policy in the ecofriendly and energy-saving trends became a scaling effect of what has been achieved from the «green construction» technologies implementation at similar sites in Moscow. The actuality and scientific novelty of this paper lie in the development of the evaluation algorithm of energy and as a result of echo-economic efficiency of different measures for energy-saving, the adaptation of the forecasting methodology for building’s technical condition index application, review of the alternative and renewable energy source technologies implementation at the «green construction» sites in the Moscow region, analysis of the technical and ecological efficiency actual values of the utilized energy-saving methods and technologies. Monitoring and dispatching of a large number of separate power plants require special ways of collecting, processing, and analyzing information about the condition of water, heat, fuel, and electricity supply systems to ensure reliability and stability of the equipment functioning. Failures necessitate maintenance works at facilities by way of equipment repair as well as replacement. The consumers may impose penalties on the heat supply company for violating heat energy supply obligations as well as on the building’s owner for incorrect equipment maintenance. The objective of this paper is to determine an approach that helps to develop a software program, based on the neural network programming, to calculate the forecasting composite index of building’s energy system, «green construction» facilities ecological and economic efficiency examination and feasibility evaluation of their further replication in Moscow region.

The article presents an algorithm for calculating and predicting the integral index of a building’s heat supply system, based on a group of criteria for energy efficiency and reliability. The fundamentals of the mathematical apparatus for calculating the reliability index are given. The minimum set of data required for calculating the reliability index has been formulated. The algorithm used in the developed software is presented, the features of the formation of the program interface are shown. The article provides an example of calculating the integral index using the example of a simplified heat supply scheme for an office building in Moscow. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of the proposed model.

The development of scientific and technological progress has led to the creation of many technical solutions for implementation in the heat supply system. Such solutions, as a rule, are energy-saving, automated, and are positioned by manufacturers as a quick payback. Over time, the cost of such technologies decreases to a level acceptable to most citizens. The introduction of inexpensive energy-saving technologies is becoming more and more widespread. Heat supply systems for even small buildings are becoming more and more complex and device-rich. Modern technologies that are energy-saving include, for example: a heat pump with the extraction of thermal energy from the ground; heat pump with the intake of heat energy from the outside air; recuperator of ventilation emissions with the intake of heat energy from ventilation emissions; thermal accumulators; individual heating station with weather-dependent automation; individual temperature regulators for heating devices; transition from metal pipes to plastic ones with insulation; bimetallic radiators for heating systems, etc. The issue of the durability of several possible options for the implementation of the heat supply system, complicated by the introduction of many different modern technologies, both in terms of the principle of operation and the achieved effect, is relevant. In this case, the use of element-by-element reliability calculation becomes much more complicated. First, the values of the failure rates for various types of modern equipment are usually trade secrets and are not provided by the manufacturer. Secondly, the excessive complication of modern heat-regulating devices does not allow making their element-by-element calculation of reliability due to the inaccessibility of information about a variety of patented solutions. Thirdly, for many new devices, sufficient operating time has not yet passed for the accumulation of statistical information sufficient to determine the value of the failure flow. The listed features stimulate the transition from element-by-element calculation of the reliability of heat supply systems to the calculation of reliability indices. This approach allows you to go to the integrated assessments of the reliability of the heating system of the building, to compare the predicted values of reliability and operating costs for various options for modernizing the building. Clarification of the algorithm and the transition to an index approach for assessing the reliability of heat supply systems will determine the flow of failures of system elements, which will allow assessing the reliability of the system and, according to the data obtained, take measures that will increase the longevity of heat supply systems. On the example of the heat supply system of an individual residential building, indices were determined for the current state of the system, as well as for two options for its modernization. It is shown that the complication of the building heat supply system does not always lead to a decrease in its reliability. Recommendations are formulated for the modernization of the building’s heat supply system, leading to an increase in the reliability index.