Temporal and spatial changes of green water (GW) security due to climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes can be used to make the best decision for sustainable GW management. In this study, simultaneous effects of climate and LULC changes on water resources in Kashafrood Basin were evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Land change modeler was set up to monitor LULC, assess changes and make predictions. The MIROC-ESM model derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 was applied to evaluate the effects of climate change. Two indices of GW-Scarcity and GW-Vulnerability, representing GW-Security, were quantified using the GW-Footprint concept in Kashafrood Basin. The results show that the annual average of blue water was predicted to increase by 142–350%, and GW storage and the annual averages of GW flow were predicted to decrease by 12–65 and 8–20%, respectively, depending on emission scenarios and time. The GW-Security estimates in the entire basin suggest a better condition in the future by indicating 24–45 and 16–52% decreases in GW-Scarcity and GW-Vulnerability, respectively, depending on emission scenarios and time.

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Abstract. Various projects have been implemented to control erosion and conserve soil/water resources. One method used to evaluate soil and water conservation projects involves mapping of erosion across a region. This study employed geomorphological methods and the so-called Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique to prepare an erosion map of Safaroud watershed in Mazandaran Province, Iran, with the aim of evaluating soil and water conservation projects. The erosion map of the region under study was compiled at two reference points in time: prior to project implementation (1994) and after projection completion (2014). The map for the erosion trend of each working unit was prepared either as positive or negative, based on a comparative examination of the erosion map for each working unit against another working unit at the two reference points in time. The effectiveness of projects in each working unit was evaluated by matching the erosion map compiled through maps of soil and water conservation projects implemented across the region. After the statistical analysis of erosion intensities before and after project implementation, the results indicated no significant relationship between the erosion intensities before and after project implementation, at an error level of 0.05. However, most of the units where the erosion trends turned upwards were located along the margins of villages, mainly due to unsystematic development of the rural areas. Erosion intensities were reduced in most of the forested areas, indicating effectiveness of project implementation in those areas.