A comprehensive analysis of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in cattle in Great Britain assesses past, present and future patterns in the incidence of infection and disease, and allows a critical appraisal of different culling policies for eradication of the disease.

Further preliminary observations are reported of an experiment to examine the spread of infectivity and the occurrence of pathological changes in cattle exposed orally to infection with bovine spongiform encephalopathy. Calves were dosed at four months of age and clinically monitored groups were killed sequentially from two to 40 months after inoculation. Tissues were collected for bioassay, for histopathological examinations and for the detection of PrP. Previous reported observations have included the presence of infectivity in the distal ileum of cattle killed after six to 18 months, the earliest onset of clinical signs in an exposed animal after 35 months, and diagnostic histopathological changes in the brain, in association with clinical disease, after 36, 38 and 40 months. In spite of the relative inefficiency of the bioassay of scrapie-like agents across a species barrier the new observations confirm that the onset of clinical signs and pathological changes in the central nervous system (CNS) occur at approximately the same time. The earliest pathological change, the presence of abnormal PrP 32 months after inoculation, coincided with the earliest detected infectivity in the CNS and occurred shortly before there was evidence of typical spongiform changes in the brain 36 months after inoculation. Infectivity has now been demonstrated in the peripheral nervous system, in the cervical and thoracic dorsal root ganglia 32 to 40 months after inoculation and in the trigeminal ganglion 36 and 38 months after inoculation. At the time of writing evidence of infectivity in other tissues is confined to the distal ileum, not only after six to 18 months but also after 38 and 40 months, but these findings may be supplemented by the results of further mouse assays. Nevertheless, they are in general agreement with current knowledge of the pathogenesis of scrapie.

The dose-response of cattle exposed to the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) agent is an important component of modelling exposure risks for animals and humans and thereby, the modulation of surveillance and control strategies for BSE. In two experiments calves were dosed orally with a range of amounts of a pool of brainstems from BSE-affected cattle. Infectivity in the pool was determined by end-point titration in mice. Recipient cattle were monitored for clinical disease and, from the incidence of pathologically confirmed cases and their incubation periods (IPs), the attack rate and IP distribution according to dose were estimated. The dose at which 50 % of cattle would be clinically affected was estimated at 0.20 g brain material used in the experiment, with 95 % confidence intervals of 0.04-1.00 g. The IP was highly variable across all dose groups and followed a log-normal distribution, with decreasing mean as dose increased. There was no evidence of a threshold dose at which the probability of infection became vanishingly small, with 1/15 (7 %) of animals affected at the lowest dose (1 mg).

This study examines tissues from sequential-kill, time-course pathogenesis studies to refine estimates of the age at which disease-specific PrP (PrP Sc ) can first be detected in the central nervous system (CNS) and related peripheral nervous system ganglia of cattle incubating bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). Such estimates are important for risk assessments of the age at which these tissues should be removed from cattle at slaughter to prevent human and animal exposure to BSE infection. Tissues were examined from cattle dosed orally with 100 or 1 g BSE-infected brain. Incubation period data for the doses were obtained from attack rate and the sequential-kill studies. A statistical model, fitted by maximum likelihood, accounted for the differences in the lognormal incubation period and the logistic probability of infection between different dose groups. Initial detection of PrP Sc during incubation was invariably in the brainstem and the earliest was at 30 and 44 months post-exposure for the 100 g-and 1 g-dosed sequential-kill study groups, respectively. The point at which PrP Sc in 50 % of the animals would be detected by immunohistochemistry applied to medulla-obex was estimated at 9.6 and 1.7 months before clinical onset for the 100 g-and 1 g-dosed cattle, respectively, with a low probability of detection in any of the tissues examined at more than 12 months before clinical onset. PrP Sc was detected inconsistently in dorsal root ganglia, concurrent with or after detection in CNS, and not at all in certain sympathetic nervous system ganglia.

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