The dose-response of cattle exposed to the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) agent is an important component of modelling exposure risks for animals and humans and thereby, the modulation of surveillance and control strategies for BSE. In two experiments calves were dosed orally with a range of amounts of a pool of brainstems from BSE-affected cattle. Infectivity in the pool was determined by end-point titration in mice. Recipient cattle were monitored for clinical disease and, from the incidence of pathologically confirmed cases and their incubation periods (IPs), the attack rate and IP distribution according to dose were estimated. The dose at which 50 % of cattle would be clinically affected was estimated at 0.20 g brain material used in the experiment, with 95 % confidence intervals of 0.04-1.00 g. The IP was highly variable across all dose groups and followed a log-normal distribution, with decreasing mean as dose increased. There was no evidence of a threshold dose at which the probability of infection became vanishingly small, with 1/15 (7 %) of animals affected at the lowest dose (1 mg).

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-The paper describes how the comprehensive surveillance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and studies carried out on these data has enhanced our knowledge of the epidemiology of BSE. Around 7 000 BSE cases were detected through the screening of about 50 million cattle with rapid tests in Europe. It confirmed that the clinical surveillance had a poor capacity to detect cases, and also showed the discrepancy of this passive surveillance efficiency between regions and production types (dairy/beef). Other risk factors for BSE were being in a dairy herd (three times more than beef), having a young age at first calving (for dairy cattle), being autumn-born (dairy and beef), and being in a herd with a very high milk yield. These findings focus the risk on the feeding regimen of calves/heifers. Several epidemiological studies across countries suggest that the feedborne source related to meat and bone meal (MBM) is the only substantiated route of infection -even after the feed ban -, while it is not possible to exclude maternal transmission or milk replacers as a source of some infections. In most European countries, the average age of the cases is increasing over time and the prevalence decreasing, which reflects the effectiveness of control measures. Consistent results on the trend of the epidemic were obtained using back-calculation modelling, the R 0 approach and Age-Period-Cohort models. Furthermore, active surveillance also resulted in the finding of atypical cases. These are distinct from previously found BSE and classified in two different forms based on biochemical characteristics; their prevalence is very low (36 cases up to 1st September 2007), affected animals were old and some of them displayed clinical signs. The origin and possibility of natural transmission is unknown.

This study examines tissues from sequential-kill, time-course pathogenesis studies to refine estimates of the age at which disease-specific PrP (PrP Sc ) can first be detected in the central nervous system (CNS) and related peripheral nervous system ganglia of cattle incubating bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). Such estimates are important for risk assessments of the age at which these tissues should be removed from cattle at slaughter to prevent human and animal exposure to BSE infection. Tissues were examined from cattle dosed orally with 100 or 1 g BSE-infected brain. Incubation period data for the doses were obtained from attack rate and the sequential-kill studies. A statistical model, fitted by maximum likelihood, accounted for the differences in the lognormal incubation period and the logistic probability of infection between different dose groups. Initial detection of PrP Sc during incubation was invariably in the brainstem and the earliest was at 30 and 44 months post-exposure for the 100 g-and 1 g-dosed sequential-kill study groups, respectively. The point at which PrP Sc in 50 % of the animals would be detected by immunohistochemistry applied to medulla-obex was estimated at 9.6 and 1.7 months before clinical onset for the 100 g-and 1 g-dosed cattle, respectively, with a low probability of detection in any of the tissues examined at more than 12 months before clinical onset. PrP Sc was detected inconsistently in dorsal root ganglia, concurrent with or after detection in CNS, and not at all in certain sympathetic nervous system ganglia.

The objective of this study was to develop and parametrize a mathematical model of the sensitivity of pooled sampling of faeces to detect Salmonella infection in pigs. A mathematical model was developed to represent the effect of pooling on the probability of Salmonella isolation. Parameters for the model were estimated using data obtained by collecting 50 faecal samples from each of two pig farms. Each sample was tested for Salmonella at individual sample weights of 0.1, 0.5, 1, 10 and 25 g and pools of 5, 10 and 20 samples were created from the individual samples. The highest test sensitivity for individual samples was found at 10 g (90% sensitivity), with the 25 g test sensitivity equal to 83%. For samples of less than 10 g, sensitivity was found to reduce with sample weight. Incubation for 48 h was found to produce a more sensitive test than incubation for 24 h. Model results found increasing sensitivity with more samples in the pool, with the pools of 5, 10 and 20 being more sensitive than individual sampling, and the pools of 20 being the most sensitive of those considered.