The current study was carried out to analyze the trend and forecast in area, production and productivity of mango crop in Karnataka. It was determined by using the secondary data of area, production and productivity of mango for the period of 18 years (2000-01 to 2017-18) was collected from Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Karnataka. To estimate the trend and its forecast for the next 5 years, up to 2022-23, linear, quadratic, exponential, logistic and Gompertz models were fitted and the best-fitted model was selected based on lowest MAPE. Result revealed that exponential model was best-fitted for area and production of mango, and the logistic model was found to be the best-fitted model for the mango productivity. The result also explored that the area, production and productivity of mango crop have an upward trend in Karnataka state in above study period. Based on this trend to forecast area, production and productivity of mango crop for the period from 2018-19 to 2022-23.
Haemorrhagic Septicaemia was considered as one of the lethal diseases for the bovines. Ingestion or inhalation were considered as the major sources of natural infection of the disease, but the mortality rate was high when casual agent introduced to non-endemic regions. This disease was observed as most deadly bacterial disease which was responsible for highest number of annual deaths of bovines. Three generalized linear models such as poisson regression, zero inflated poisson and zero inflated negative binomial models were fitted, among these models zero inflated models were found to be best fit and the risk factors viz., land surface temperature, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration, rainfall and soil temperature were found to have significant effect in the outbreak of Haemorrhagic Septicaemia disease.
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