In recent decades forest degradation declined around the globe. While encouraging, improvements emerged unevenly in the Global South. What explains these variable trends? Using longitudinal panel models with fixed effects, I assess changes to forest area from 1993–2013 in 73 countries. Drawing from sociological institutionalism and unequal ecological exchange, I make three contributions. I find that omnibus environmental laws mitigate forest loss rather than environmental international nongovernmental organizations, and, I show that dependency on trade with wealthy countries weakens the impact of these policies. I also substantiate and theorize export-led industrialization as a leading driver of deforestation. Broadly, I argue that national states are key sites of contestation between transnational political-economic forces and legitimated but pliable environmental institutions. Developing countries adopt standardized forest protections while, facing political-economic pressures, they variably consent to predatory trade terms and streamline export infrastructures. I conclude with recommendations for future research and policy implications.

Developing countries adopt global policies in their quest for economic development. Studies show that such policies are decoupled from their intended effects, or that over time, they become more effective. But what if the opposite happens and policies, which were initially efficacious, become increasingly decoupled with time? We recognize this phenomenon as amplified decoupling. Combining historical and quantitative analysis, we examine a case of bilateral investment treaties (BITs), established to protect and promote foreign direct investment (FDI). The influence of BITs on FDI is significant in the early periods but becomes weaker over time. Historical analysis reveals the unexpected role of (post)communist countries in using BITs for geopolitical purposes and highlight the impact of international organizations which broker treaty signing among pairs of developing countries engaged in economic diplomacy. We suggest that amplified decoupling can result because of institutional multivalence, whereby practical actors reframe and repurpose policies toward uses that were originally unintended.