This study addresses the question of how currency exchange rates affect aggregate hotel demand in the U.S. over time, among chain scales, and gateway cities. The effect is isolated after controlling for hotel room rates, real personal income, and other demand determinants. Exchange rates had a significant, although minor, influence on U.S. hotel demand from 1992 Q1-2012 Q1. Disaggregate analyses using data organized by time periods corresponding to Internet availability does not offer new insights about how exchange rates affect U.S. hotel demand. Analyses using chain scale and gateway city data, however, reveal that exchange rates strongly influence hotel demand in luxury, upper-upscale, and upscale segments, with a much weaker relationship among lower-price hotels. The exchange rate effect is strongest for upper-price hotels in gateway cities.

The hotel industry seems to be recovering from its recent abyss, but the financial damage to many properties from many months of decline will continue for some time. In particular, the hotel industry faces the prospect of heavily leveraged properties submerged by delinquencies and defaults. An analysis of debt coverage ratios for 365 hotel properties with commercial mortgage-backed security loans shows considerable deterioration from 2008 to a nadir in 2010. Starting in 2011, net operating income and debt coverage ratios should gradually improve, with noticeable improvement in 2012.

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