The main goal of the study is to examine and demonstrate the application of a developed probabilistic framework to the analysis of a chosen general type of steel connection component in order to obtain the basic characteristics of its mechanical behaviour with regard to the chosen type of the input geometry and material properties. Accordingly, as a typical representative of the component method proposed by the Eurocode the equivalent T-stub was chosen as a subject of the study. This type of structural element has the capability to address the behaviour of several parts of the connection: column flange in bending, end plate in bending and flange cleat in bending. A method is proposed to determine the probability density function of the ultimate strength using a response-surface approach coupled with FEM applied to a stochastic structural model. The results of a study were processed by means of sensitivity analysis to determine the importance level of the input variables.Keywords steel connection · T-stub ultimate strength · finite element model · response-surface method · stochastic model · MonteCarlo simulation · sensitivity analysis Acknowledgement