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The waste-to-energy (WTE) plant has been deployed in 205 cities in China. However, it always faces public resistance to be built because of the great concerns on flue gas pollutants (FGPs). There are limited studies on the socioeconomic heterogeneity analysis and prediction models of WTE capacity/ FGP emission inventories (EIs) based on big data. In this study, the incinerator level emission factors (EFs) in 2020 of PM, SO2, NO x , CO, HCl, dioxins, Hg, Cd + Tl, and Sb + As+ Pb + Cr + Co + Cu + Mn + Ni were calculated based on 322,926 monitoring values of all the 481 WTE plants (1140 processing lines) operating in China, with uncertainties in the range of ±34.70%. The EFs were significantly 45–96% lower than the national standard (GB18485-2014) and had negative relationships with local socioeconomic elements, while WTE capacity and FGP EIs had significantly positive correlations. Gross domestic product, area of built district, and municipal solid waste generation were the main driving forces of WTE capacity. The WTE capacity increased by 150% from 2015 to 2020, while the total emission of PM, SO2, CO, dioxins, Hg, and Sb + As + Pb + Cr + Co + Cu + Mn + Ni decreased by 42.46–88.24%. The artificial neural network models were established to predict WTE capacity and FGP EIs in the city level, with the mean square errors ranging from 0.003 to 0.19 within the model validation limits. This study provides data and model support for the formulation of appropriate WTE plans and a pollutant emission control scheme in different economic regions.

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