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This study uses social accounting matrix multipliers and structural path analyses to estimate effects of COVID‐19 and related fiscal stimuli on five household groups. The COVID‐19 lockdown increased poverty in Pakistan by 15%, which was addressed using a $1.5 billion, digitally implemented Ehsaas Emergency Cash (EEC) program that reached 14.8 million poor households. The study's models show that the largest multipliers from Ehsaas program finance were in agriculture, as a 1 Rupee shock adds 0.225 Rupee income to households. About 30% of that gain was estimated to go to poor farm families. In contrast, our models find that construction and trade growth added three times as much income to poor nonfarm and urban households as to farm households. However, those sectors added only one third as much total income as agriculture. From the structural path analysis, the importance of capital assets in generating income was seen, as was the possibility of greater poverty reduction from sectors with proportionally fewer intermediate inputs and more value added.

Cotton is the most important cash crop in Pakistan and cotton products export account for 55 percent of all foreign exchange earnings of the country. Nearly 26 percent of farmers grow cotton, and over 15 percent of total cultivated area is devoted to this crop, with production primarily in two provinces. Approximately 65 percent of Pakistan's cotton is grown in Punjab, which has dry conditions, and the rest is grown in Sindh, which has a more humid climate, with negligible area under cotton in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Cotton production accounts for 4.5 percent of the value added in AgGDP and 0.8 per cent of GDP. It serves as the raw material for the textile industry, the country's largest agro-industrial sector 2 , employs 17 percent, earns 60 percent of foreign exchange and contributes 8.5 percent to GDP. Despite its importance, cotton productivity in Pakistan has been underwhelming. The country now ranks 4th in terms of area under cotton cultivation but ranks 39th in cotton productivity per hectare. Cotton yield in Pakistan is forecasted around 513 kgs per hectare in 2019/20 against 1660 kgs per hectare in Brazil which ranks 5th in area under cotton cultivation (Figures 1 and 2).

established in 1975, provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI's strategic research aims to foster a climate-resilient and sustainable food supply; promote healthy diets and nutrition for all; build inclusive and efficient markets, trade systems, and food industries; transform agricultural and rural economies; and strengthen institutions and governance. Gender is integrated in all the Institute's work. Partnerships, communications, capacity strengthening, and data and knowledge management are essential components to translate IFPRI's research from action to impact. The Institute's regional and country pro-grams play a critical role in responding to demand for food policy research and in delivering holistic support for country-led development. IFPRI collaborates with partners around the world.

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