Economic diversification is an essential aspect of sustainable development as diversification enhances macroeconomic stability and promotes structural and long-term transformation not only in the economy but also in other pillars of development such as social institutions and dimensions. There is empirical evidence suggesting an impact of economic and structural factors on diversification. However, there is no consensus on the results in the literature because of various factors, such as the employment of different variables, methodologies, countries, and periods. This paper empirically explores the relations driving economic diversification in 14 resource-rich countries between 2001 and 2019, with six alternative models. In this regard, feasible generalized least squares regression was employed for the proposed model specifications. It provides strong evidence that gross capital formation, financial development, labor force participation, education, and the rule of law have statistically significant and positive impacts on economic diversification performance. On the other hand, inward foreign direct investment, real GDP growth, and self-employment rate also have statistically significant, but negative, impacts on economic diversification, probably because they further promote or are a result of resource-based growth rather than diversification into other technology- and knowledge-based sectors.

Economic diversification has been a cornerstone of the policy agenda of resource-rich countries, such as Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, seeking sustainable economic development to avoid reliance on hydrocarbon revenues that cause significant vulnerabilities and economic, social, and political instability in the long term. GCC governments invest the proceeds from rich hydrocarbon exports to build a diverse local economy. However, it is unclear whether increased capital formation through public investments helps these economies diversify away from hydrocarbons. The main objective of this study was to determine whether GCC countries’ capital formation has appreciable impulse effects on response–economic diversification in the short or long term. A panel vector autoregression method describing the cause and effect or the dynamic relation between capital formation and economic diversification was used to attest to the success of economic diversification policies in resource-rich countries. The results show that a shock to real gross capital formation has a limited impact on economic diversification (the non-resource rent share) in the GCC economies. This could be attributed to these countries’ oil/gas-focused fixed investment build-up. Furthermore, an evaluation of the recursive relationship shows that the impact of growing non-hydrocarbon sectors on gross capital formation is limited.