Objective: The present study aimed to model obesity trends and future obesityrelated disease for nine countries in the Middle East; in addition, to explore how hypothetical reductions in population obesity levels could ameliorate anticipated disease burdens. Design: A regression analysis of cross-sectional data v. BMI showed age-and sex-specific BMI trends, which fed into a micro simulation with a million Monte Carlo trials for each country. We also examined two alternative scenarios where population BMI was reduced by 1 % and 5 %.