Climate change is among the major challenges to sustainable agricultural production in Ethiopia. Production of cereal crops, especially maize, is very responsive to changes in rainfall and temperature, as climatic parameters influencing productivity. This paper analyzes how climatic and other variables affect the supply of maize in Ethiopia. The data were obtained from secondary sources and cover the period 1981–2018. Data were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC), and Hannan-Quinn Information Criterion (HQ) were used to select the optimum number of lags. In order to detect whether unit root is present in the series, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Philips-Perron (PP) tests were carried out. The presence of long-run equilibrium was found between maize output and temperature, rainfall, and other included variables. The results show that, in both the long and shortrun, all included climatic variables had a negative relationship with maize output supply, although temperature showed statistical insignificance (P>0.10). The result showed that maize crops are highly sensitive to extremes of rainfall – both shortage in the initial growing period and excessin the vegetative and fruiting stages. It was concluded that farmers face climate-related risk due to variations, particularly in rainfall. Therefore, farmers should adapt by using short-duration and climate-tolerant varieties of maize, along with engagement with eco-friendly production systems.
The study analyzed trends and variations in climate parameters in the Upper Awash River Sub-Basin using linear regression line, standardized anomalies, and coefficient of variation as an analytical tool. The pooled seasonal rainfall showed a positively significant increasing trend in the long-season in the sub-basin, with magnitudes of 2.753mm. The trend of seasonal rainfall in some individual stations confirms the presence of an increasing seasonal rainfall portraying a positively significant increasing trend during both short- and long- seasons. Analysis of pooled and individual stations’ CGS maximum and minimum temperatures portrayed a positive and increasing trend, with a magnitude of 0.052oC and 0.0010C/year respectively, which are highly significant. Overall, the results depicted an increasing trend for both maximum and minimum temperatures implying the presence of warming along the sub-basin, aligning with global warming. Variability analysis of rainfall variables along the sub-basin exhibited both positive and negative anomalies for short-season rainfall, with the lowest anomalies from the years 1994, 1997, 1999, 2002, and 2009, representing drought years. Equally, long-season rainfall exemplified high variations over the years 1994/95, 2001/02, 2009, and 2014/15 with anomalies of (-2.3), (-1.8), (-1.4), and (-1.0), which coincided with severe drought years. The CV for both seasons confirms the presence of high variability, particularly the short-season with 32.5% CV. Mean CGS maximum and minimum temperatures in most cases depicted positive anomalies evidencing the existence of strong warming along the sub-basin. The crop yield anomalies for teff, wheat, and maize in the sub-basin depicted high variations; exhibiting negative values from 1991 to 2005 (53%), positive values from 2012 to 2020 (30%), and fluctuations between2006 to 2010. This implies that the years from 1991 to 2004 were severe drought years while the years from 2013 to 2020 were cooler years. The variations and fluctuation in the crop yield anomalies resulted from variations that prevailed in the annual main-season rainfall along the sub-basin.
Submission of an original paper with copyright agreement and authorship responsibility.I (corresponding author) certify that I have participated sufficiently in the conception and design of this work and the analysis of the data (wherever applicable), as well as the writing of the manuscript, to take public responsibility for it. I believe the manuscript represents valid work. I have reviewed the final version of the manuscript and approve it for publication. Neither has the manuscript nor one with substantially similar content under my authorship been published nor is being considered for publication elsewhere, except as described in an attachment. Furthermore I attest that I shall produce the data upon which the manuscript is based for examination by the editors or their assignees, if requested.Thanking you.
Submission of an original paper with copyright agreement and authorship responsibility.I (corresponding author) certify that I have participated sufficiently in the conception and design of this work and the analysis of the data (wherever applicable), as well as the writing of the manuscript, to take public responsibility for it. I believe the manuscript represents valid work. I have reviewed the final version of the manuscript and approve it for publication. Neither has the manuscript nor one with substantially similar content under my authorship been published nor is being considered for publication elsewhere, except as described in an attachment. Furthermore I attest that I shall produce the data upon which the manuscript is based for examination by the editors or their assignees, if requested.Thanking you.
Submission of an original paper with copyright agreement and authorship responsibility.I (corresponding author) certify that I have participated sufficiently in the conception and design of this work and the analysis of the data (wherever applicable), as well as the writing of the manuscript, to take public responsibility for it. I believe the manuscript represents valid work. I have reviewed the final version of the manuscript and approve it for publication. Neither has the manuscript nor one with substantially similar content under my authorship been published nor is being considered for publication elsewhere, except as described in an attachment. Furthermore I attest that I shall produce the data upon which the manuscript is based for examination by the editors or their assignees, if requested.Thanking you.
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