The estimation of the accuracy of predictions is a critical problem in QSAR modeling. The "distance to model" can be defined as a metric that defines the similarity between the training set molecules and the test set compound for the given property in the context of a specific model. It could be expressed in many different ways, e.g., using Tanimoto coefficient, leverage, correlation in space of models, etc. In this paper we have used mixtures of Gaussian distributions as well as statistical tests to evaluate six types of distances to models with respect to their ability to discriminate compounds with small and large prediction errors. The analysis was performed for twelve QSAR models of aqueous toxicity against T. pyriformis obtained with different machine-learning methods and various types of descriptors. The distances to model based on standard deviation of predicted toxicity calculated from the ensemble of models afforded the best results. This distance also successfully discriminated molecules with low and large prediction errors for a mechanism-based model developed using log P and the Maximum Acceptor Superdelocalizability descriptors. Thus, the distance to model metric could also be used to augment mechanistic QSAR models by estimating their prediction errors. Moreover, the accuracy of prediction is mainly determined by the training set data distribution in the chemistry and activity spaces but not by QSAR approaches used to develop the models. We have shown that incorrect validation of a model may result in the wrong estimation of its performance and suggested how this problem could be circumvented. The toxicity of 3182 and 48774 molecules from the EPA High Production Volume (HPV) Challenge Program and EINECS (European chemical Substances Information System), respectively, was predicted, and the accuracy of prediction was estimated. The developed models are available online at http://www.qspr.org site.

The Online Chemical Modeling Environment is a web-based platform that aims to automate and simplify the typical steps required for QSAR modeling. The platform consists of two major subsystems: the database of experimental measurements and the modeling framework. A user-contributed database contains a set of tools for easy input, search and modification of thousands of records. The OCHEM database is based on the wiki principle and focuses primarily on the quality and verifiability of the data. The database is tightly integrated with the modeling framework, which supports all the steps required to create a predictive model: data search, calculation and selection of a vast variety of molecular descriptors, application of machine learning methods, validation, analysis of the model and assessment of the applicability domain. As compared to other similar systems, OCHEM is not intended to re-implement the existing tools or models but rather to invite the original authors to contribute their results, make them publicly available, share them with other users and to become members of the growing research community. Our intention is to make OCHEM a widely used platform to perform the QSPR/QSAR studies online and share it with other users on the Web. The ultimate goal of OCHEM is collecting all possible chemoinformatics tools within one simple, reliable and user-friendly resource. The OCHEM is free for web users and it is available online at http://www.ochem.eu.