The apartheid legacy molded urbanization changes in South Africa. Post-1994 people were free to migrate to areas with greater economic activities (increased socio-economic opportunities) subsequently, the genesis of migration. Majority of the people aimed for Gauteng Province which is considered the economic hub of the country and a magnet of opportunities. This study looked at the history of Gauteng- primarily the economic position in conjunction with economic theories.  This quantitative research investigated the relationship between economic growth and urbanization in the Gauteng Province. Granger causality tests were used to ascertain the relationship used in the research and the study focused on the period 1997 to 2020, using quarterly data. From the study, it was established that there is a unidirectional causality running from economic growth and employment in Gauteng- meaning that an increase in economic growth enables more jobs to be created, leading to migration of people to the province. The paper also found no causal relationship between population and economic growth- meaning that population increase does not have any effect on economic growth. People seek to progress out of poverty, primarily to an urban lifestyle to leverage socio-economic benefits- grow skills and knowledge by accessing public services such as education, and infrastructure mainly available in urbanized areas. The paper recommends for the government redefine urbanization policy to manage rapid migration. Failure to do so will lead to infrastructure ( housing, water, and electricity) and employment challenges within the province.

Objective – The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between the CPI, the brent crude oil price, and the PPI for final manufactured goods as well as the Rand/Dollar exchange rate during the past year. The study used South Africa as a proxy for developed countries. The objective is, therefore, to evaluate the effects of the increase in commodity prices on inflation and other macroeconomic variables. Methodology –The study utilised a quantitative methodological approach through the assessment of an econometric model that employed monthly data from January 2017 to May 2022. The paper utilized variables such as CPI, brent crude oil prices, PPI for final manufactured goods as well as the Rand/Dollar exchange rate. Findings – Short- and long-run relationships were established between the variables using the vector error correction model (VECM) and the Johansen co-integration equation methods. The long-run conclusions showed that high brent crude oil prices, high sunflower oil, a depreciating exchange rate and increasingly high PPI levels will lead to an increase in the CPI (Inflation). The results also indicated that oil prices still influence the basic prices of goods and services since all things need to be transported. Novelty – The results of the study showed that a perpetual international and national macro-economic environment is crucial to prevent inflationary pressures and price shocks, while volatile exchange rates unsteady PPI’s and significantly high oil and commodity prices causes cost-push inflation. Policy certainty and political stability is important to keep inflation stable and economic growth positive, which could lead to a more self-sufficient economy which are is reliant on political instability as an obstacle for positive future economic growth. Type of Paper: Empirical JEL Classification: E31, E37, E60, E63 Keywords: Russian-Ukrainian conflict, economic growth, Brent crude oil prices, PPI, CPI, exchange rates, sunflower oil. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Neethling, J.R; Wyk, A.S.V. (2022). Analysing the rising oil price shock driven by Russia-Ukrainian tensions - effect on inflationary pressure in South Africa, J. Bus. Econ. Review, 7(3), 178–193. https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2022.7.3(3)

At the onset of 2022 the Russian Federation occupied Ukraine in a major intensification of the Russo-Ukrainian War that instigated in 2014. The result of the Russians invasion in Ukraine caused a major intensification in the inflationary levels and weakened global economic growth. As a result of the conflict the Brent Crude Oil prices increased from $92.98 per ounce on 24 February to $122.43 per ounce on the 8th of June 2022 which is an increase of 31.67 per cent in less than 4 months. The result of this invasion reformed the macroeconomic environment which fundamentally affected the international commodity markets and consequently leading to insufficient financial linkages between Russia and the rest of the World. The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between the CPI, the brent crude oil price, the PPI for final manufactured good as well as the Rand/Dollar exchange rate. The study used South Africa as a proxy for developed countries. A quantitative methodology was used through the estimation of an econometric model by utilizing monthly time series data from January 2017 to May 2022. The CPI was chosen as the dependent variable while the independent variables included the PPI, sunflower oil, Rand/Dollar exchange rate and the brent crude oil. Short- and long-run relationships were established between the variables using the vector error correction model (VECM) and the Johansen co-integration equation methods. The long run conclusions showed that high brent crude oil prices, high sunflower oil, a depreciating exchange rate and increasingly high PPI levels will lead to an increase in the CPI (Inflation). In conclusion, the results of the study showed that a perpetual international and national macro-economic environment is crucial to prevent inflationary pressures and price shocks, while volatile exchange rates unsteady PPI's and significantly high oil and commodity prices causes cost-push inflation. Policy certainty and political stability is important to keep inflation stable and economic growth positive, which could lead to a more self-sufficient economy which are not reliant on political instability as an obstacle for positive future economic growth. Keywords: Russian-Ukrainian conflict, economic growth, Brent crude oil prices, PPI, CPI, exchange rates, sunflower oil.