The aim of this study was to develop a realistic network model to predict the relationship between lockdown duration and coverage in controlling the progression of the incidence curve of an epidemic with the characteristics of COVID-19 in two scenarios (1) a closed and nonimmune population, and (2) a real scenario from State of Rio de Janeiro from May 6 th 2020.Effects of lockdown time and rate on the progression of an epidemic incidence curve in a virtual population of 10 thousand subjects. Predictor variables were reproductive values established in the most recent literature (R0 =2.7 and 5.7, and Re = 1.28 from Rio de Janeiro State at May 6 th ), without lockdown and with coverages of 25%, 50%, and 90% for 21, 35, 70, and 140 days in up to 13 different scenarios for each R0/Re, where individuals remained infected and transmitters for 14 days. We estimated model validity in theoretical and real scenarios respectively by applying an exponential model on the incidence curve with no lockdown with growth rate coefficient observed in realistic scenarios, and (2) fitting real data series from RJ upon simulated data, respectively.

Background: Eye movement during blinking can be a significant artifact in ERP analysis (mainly if

1 mass univariate analysis between two event-related 2 potential waves. 3 Dimitri Marques Abramov 4 5 Laboratory of Neurobiology and Clinical Neurophysiology 6 National Institute of Women, Children and Adolescents Health Fernandes 7 Figueira, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Abstract 17 Background: Methods for p-value correction are criticized for either 18 increasing Type II error or improperly reducing Type I error. This problem is 19 worse when dealing with hundreds or thousands of paired comparisons 20 between waves or images which are performed point-to-point. This text 21 considers patterns in probability vectors resulting from multiple point-to-point 22 comparisons between two ERP waves (mass univariate analysis) to correct p-23 values. These patterns (probability waves) mirror ERP waveshapes and might 24 be indicators of consistency in statistical differences. 25 New method: In order to compute and analyze these patterns, we convoluted 26 the decimal logarithm of the probability vector (p') using a Gaussian vector 27 with size compatible to the ERP periods observed. For verify consistency of 28 this method, we also calculated mean amplitudes of late ERPs from Pz (P300 29 wave) and O1 electrodes in two samples, respectively of typical and ADHD 30 subjects.31Results: the present method reduces the range of p'-values that did not show 32 covariance with neighbors (that is, that are likely random differences, type I 33 errors), while preserving the amplitude of probability waves, in accordance to 34 difference between respective mean amplitudes. 35 2 Comparison with existing methods: the positive-FDR resulted in a different 36 profile of corrected p-values, which is not consistent with expected results or 37 differences between mean amplitudes of the analyzed ERPs. 38 Conclusion: the present new method seems to be biological and statistically 39 more suitable to correct p-values in mass univariate analysis of ERP waves. 40 41 130 suppressed. We studied the effect of the convolution of p' by n (t = 60 bins ~ 131 100ms) on the probability waveform resulting from multiple U-tests (Mann-132 Whitney) between two ERP waves (case and control), from the O1 and Pz 133 electrodes (10-20 montage), obtained in an experiment that evaluated 134 neurophysiological correlates of behavior in the Attention Network Test of 135 both typical (n = 20) and ADHD children (n = 19) [3]. We show the 136 uncorrected probability waves (figure 3, bottom of Pz and O1 panels, in black) 137 and those corrected by the proposed method (blue). We also used the Storey 138 method for p-correction (positive False Discovery Rate, p-FDR, orange) [9], 139 which is less conservative than the Benjamini-Hockberg [6] and Benjamini-140 Yekutieli [7,8] methods. 141 6 142 143 157 estimate the reliability of p-correction methods, we compared the mean 158 amplitude of the cognitive target-related potentials (dashed line) on the Pz 159 electrode, which is the P300 wave [10], and on the O1 electrode. We tested 160 the null hypothesis between those mean amplitudes using...