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This paper analyzes the impact of the inflation and the world interest rate on the Indonesian economy and the effectiveness of the Indonesian central bank policy to adopt the domestic macroeconomic fluctuation.Assuming Indonesia as a small-open economy, the Stuctural Vector Autoregressive Model is utilized on the monthly data during the periode of 1999: 1 – 2004: 12 covering the main domestic macroeconomic indicator (output, price, money supply, interest rate and the exchange rate) and the world oil price and world interest rate as the disturbance source.The analysis provides 2 main results, first, the international variables do have impacts on the domestic variables fluctuation, implying the fragility of the domestic economy due to the external shock, second, the monetary policy is effective on supporting the economic growth and stabilizing the price level. However, the Bank Indonesia policy to stabilize the international shock via the exchange rate channel, contributes to a higher impact of the international shock on domestic interest rate.Keywords: monetary policy, business cycle, SVARJEL Classification: E52, E32, C32, F41
Rural residents account for the bulk of poverty in developing countries. This paper evaluates the impact of Indonesia’s Dana Desa program (Village Fund Program or VFP) on rural poverty and female labour force participation. The VFP, introduced in 2014, was an ambitious national-level village governance program which transferred administrative responsibility and financial resources to Indonesia’s 79,000 plus rural villages, providing them with the autonomy to invest in rural infrastructure, human capital, and job creation programs. Using nationally representative data from before and after the program, we show that the implementation of the VFP was associated with an improvement in rural household’s consumption expenditure among households, particularly among agricultural households. Female labour force participation in rural areas increased by about 10 percentage points and there is also evidence of a sectoral shift away from agricultural employment towards jobs in the service sector. This improvement in labour force participation is associated with poverty reduction among rural households.
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