Understanding how quickly physiological traits evolve is a topic of great interest, particularly in the context of how organisms can adapt in response to climate warming. Adjustment to novel thermal habitats may occur either through behavioural adjustments, physiological adaptation or both. Here, we test whether rates of evolution differ among physiological traits in the cybotoids, a clade of tropical Anolis lizards distributed in markedly different thermal environments on the Caribbean island of Hispaniola. We find that cold tolerance evolves considerably faster than heat tolerance, a difference that results because behavioural thermoregulation more effectively shields these organisms from selection on upper than lower temperature tolerances. Specifically, because lizards in very different environments behaviourally thermoregulate during the day to similar body temperatures, divergent selection on body temperature and heat tolerance is precluded, whereas night-time temperatures can only be partially buffered by behaviour, thereby exposing organisms to selection on cold tolerance. We discuss how exposure to selection on physiology influences divergence among tropical organisms and its implications for adaptive evolutionary response to climate warming.

How climate affects species distributions is a longstanding question receiving renewed interest owing to the need to predict the impacts of global warming on biodiversity. Is climate change forcing species to live near their critical thermal limits? Are these limits likely to change through natural selection? These and other important questions can be addressed with models relating geographical distributions of species with climate data, but inferences made with these models are highly contingent on non-climatic factors such as biotic interactions. Improved understanding of climate change effects on species will require extensive analysis of thermal physiological traits, but such data are both scarce and scattered. To overcome current limitations, we created the GlobTherm database. The database contains experimentally derived species’ thermal tolerance data currently comprising over 2,000 species of terrestrial, freshwater, intertidal and marine multicellular algae, plants, fungi, and animals. The GlobTherm database will be maintained and curated by iDiv with the aim to keep expanding it, and enable further investigations on the effects of climate on the distribution of life on Earth.

Accurate predictions of future shifts in species diversity in response to global change are critical if useful conservation strategies are to be developed. The most widely used prediction method is to model individual species niches from point observations and project these models forward using future climate scenarios. The resulting changes in individual ranges are then summed to predict diversity changes; multiple models can be combined to produce ensemble forecasts. Predictions based on environment-richness regressions are rarer. However, richness regression models, based on macroecological diversity theory, have a long track record of making reliable spatial predictions of diversity patterns. If these empirical theories capture true functional relationships between environment and diversity, then they should make consistent predictions through time as well as space and could complement individual species-based predictions. Here, we use climate change throughout the 20th century to directly test the ability of these different approaches to predict shifts of Canadian butterfly diversity. We found that all approaches performed reasonably well, but the most accurate predictions were made using the single best richness-environment regression model, after accounting for the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Spatially trained regression models based on macroecological theory accurately predict diversity shifts for large species assemblages. Global changes provide pseudo-experimental tests of those macroecological theories that can then generate robust predictions of future conditions.

The latitudinal diversity gradient has been hypothesized to reflect past evolutionary dynamics driven by climatic niche conservation during cladogenesis, i.e. the tropical conservatism hypothesis. Here we show that the species diversity of treefrogs (Hylidae) across the western hemisphere is actually independent of evolutionary niche dynamics. We evaluated three key predictions of the tropical conservatism hypothesis that relate to the relationships between climate, species richness and the phylogenetic structure of regional treefrog faunas across the continental Americas. Species composition was dependent on the inability of some lineages to evolve cold tolerance, but the actual number of species in a region was strongly predicted by precipitation, not temperature. Moreover, phylogenetic structure was independent of precipitation. Thus, species in low-richness areas were no more closely related than species in highly diverse regions. These results provide no support for the tropical conservatism hypothesis. Instead, they show that regional species composition and richness are constrained by different climatic components, demonstrating that global biodiversity gradients can be independent of niche stasis during cladogenesis.

Understanding how species’ thermal limits have evolved across the tree of life is central to predicting species’ responses to climate change. Here, using experimentally-derived estimates of thermal tolerance limits for over 2000 terrestrial and aquatic species, we show that most of the variation in thermal tolerance can be attributed to a combination of adaptation to current climatic extremes, and the existence of evolutionary ‘attractors’ that reflect either boundaries or optima in thermal tolerance limits. Our results also reveal deep-time climate legacies in ectotherms, whereby orders that originated in cold paleoclimates have presently lower cold tolerance limits than those with warm thermal ancestry. Conversely, heat tolerance appears unrelated to climate ancestry. Cold tolerance has evolved more quickly than heat tolerance in endotherms and ectotherms. If the past tempo of evolution for upper thermal limits continues, adaptive responses in thermal limits will have limited potential to rescue the large majority of species given the unprecedented rate of contemporary climate change.