Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria’s life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

We must ensure that trials are scientifically, politically, and socially robust, publicly accountable, and widely transparent

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Studies investigating the genetic variation of invasive species render opportunities to better understand the dynamics of biological invasions from an ecological and evolutionary perspective. In this study, we investigate fine-scale population genetic structure of invasive Senecio madagascariensis (fireweed) using microsatellite markers to determine levels of genetic diversity and how it pertains to introduction history of this species within and among the Hawaiian Islands. Dispersal patterns were interpreted and, together with a habitat suitability analysis, we aim to describe the potential range expansion of S. madgascariensis within the islands. Bayesian and frequency-based analyses revealed genetic structure with two major genetic demes corresponding to the two fireweed-infested islands of Maui and Hawaii. Both these demes showed further genetic sub-structure, each consisting of three genetically distinct subgroups. Overall, fireweed showed significant levels of inbreeding. Major genetic demes (Maui and Hawaii) differed in observed heterozygosities, inbreeding and genetic structure, each harbouring a large proportion of private alleles. In contrast to the current understanding of fireweed's introduction history between the Hawaiian Islands, fine-scale population genetic parameters suggest that this species has been introduced at least twice, possibly even more, to the archipelago. Spatial analyses also revealed high correlation between genetic similarity and geographical proximity (>2 km apart) followed by a sharp decline. In addition, a single population was identified that likely resulted from a rare human-or animal-mediated extreme longdistance dispersal event from Maui to Hawaii. Bayesian and likelihood estimates of 'first generation migrants' also concurred that contemporary dispersal occurs more frequently over smaller spatial scales than larger scales. These findings indicate that spread in this species occurs primarily via a stratified strategy. Predictions from habitat suitability models indicate all Hawaiian Islands as highly suitable for fireweed invasion and the movement of propagules to currently uninfested islands and outlying suitable habitats should be avoided to circumvent further expansions of the invasion.

The unprecedented success of biological control (biocontrol) agents led some of the proponents of this technology to promote its use as a panacea for all pest problems. Following an accumulation of non-target host interactions, because of generalist or new association introductions, techniques to help ensure classical biocontrol agent's success and reduce non-target interactions were implemented. Even with these new measures in place, public and scientific mistrust and lack of consistency has resulted in increased regulation of biocontrol introductions. This has likely decreased the probability of effective, sustainable control measures being expeditiously implemented. With the current apprehension concerning the safety of biocontrol, we should incorporate the processes (adaptation, selection, etc.) and theoretical concepts of evolutionary biology to predict and enhance the effectiveness of biocontrol. The microevolutionary perspective that involves mutation, drift, selection and gene flow may be a crucial consideration in the realm of biocontrol. Here, we discuss how and why spatial and evolutionary models should be implemented into future risk assessment analyses of potential biocontrol agents. We suggest that it is necessary to re-assess the approach that has developed over the past approximately 100 years of sustained releases and illuminate them in the context of an evolutionary timescale.